Obtain the data you need to make the most informed decisions by accessing our extensive portfolio of information, analytics, and expertise. Sign in to the product or service center of your choice.
On 21 May 2019, the chairman of Sri Lanka's Election Commission,
Mahinda Deshapriya, announced that a presidential election would be
held between 15 November and 7 December 2019. The country's main
political parties - the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) and the
United National Party (UNP) - have not yet announced their
candidates. The deadline for nominations is 20 October.
The powers of the executive presidency were diluted in a
constitutional amendment in 2015, but the office remains
influential, with the president retaining the ability to dismiss
parliament, appoint senior members of the judiciary, declare states
of emergency and to run government ministries. Since 2018,
President Maithripala Sirisena has used his powers to challenge the
UNP-led government and its policies, including a failed effort to
dismiss Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe in October 2018.
Significance
Sirisena, who leads the SLFP, has indicated that he intends to
run again. However, we assess that he is increasingly unlikely to
be nominated given the widespread criticism of both Sirisena and
the UNP over the government's inability to prevent the 21 April
Islamist attacks. Former defense secretary Gotabaya Rajapaksa,
brother of former president Mahinda Rajapaksa, is best-placed to
secure the SLFP's nomination, or alternatively, run as a candidate
for Mahinda's new party, the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna, which
comprehensively defeated both the SLFP and the UNP in the February
2018 local elections.
A Gotabaya presidency, which would be likely to emphasize a
strong stance towards national security and countering Islamist
militancy, is unlikely to end recent policy paralysis and
government infighting as we would expect him to continue a
confrontational relationship with the UNP-led government. A
comprehensive victory for Gotabaya, however, would indicate a
fundamental move in popular support away from the UNP-led
government over its handling of the Easter attacks.
In turn, this would indicate increased likelihood of SLFP
regaining power in the 2020 parliamentary election. Such an outcome
would be a clearly-positive indicator for subsequent government
stability and its ability to formulate and implement policies. As a
less favorable indicator for companies operating in Sri Lanka, an
SLFP-led government would be likely to move towards closer
relations with China and oppose broader economic engagement with
the international community.
