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Article: South East Asia pineapple industry concerns over climate event
20 August 2020
El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) monitoring system changed
from Neutral to La Niña Watch status on 30 July, with the Asean
Especialied Meteorological Centre (ASMC), suggesting observer
indicators hint at la Niña-like conditions developing within the
next three months.
However, the ASMC also highlighted: "The spread of possible
outcomes from the model is currently still too wide to indicate a
consensus on the strength of the La Niña conditions and whether the
conditions will be sustained for long enough to be declared a La
Niña event."
La Niña conditions are associated with colder Pacific sea
surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central and eastern Pacific, a
decrease in cloudiness around or to the east of the international
dateline (180°) and an increase in cloudiness in the west.
Sub-surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific should also be
colder than average.
An Ecuadorian tuna industry source noted in late July waters
cooling off the Ecuadorian and Peruvian coast (FAO 87) resulted in
fish migrating further seeking for warmer waters and tuna
discharges at port reduced.
In south-east Asia region, La Niña is related to rains and
floods, which influence the local agricultural output. In response
to IHS Markit's Food & Agricultural Commodities enquiry,
pineapple and sweetcorn industry sources from Thailand, Philippines
and Indonesia seem to agree that the likelihood of La Niña event
happening this year is not a major threat to their crops so
far.
Thailand
According to some local pineapple and sweetcorn industry
sources, there was no current talk among Thai authorities or the
local media regarding the latest ASMC report as of 14 August.
"La Niña, usually meaning heavy rains and flash floods, is not
an extraordinary meteorological event in this time of the year.
However, I think our weather authorities are not good at predicting
or reading the effects of La Niña or El Niño," one source said.
Referring to the Thai flooding in 2011, which had a huge impact
on agriculture, a second source stated: "It only happens once in a
lifetime, experts say. I also say that it had to do with wrong
water management, as they kept too much water in the dam and
released it at the wrong time, coinciding with heavy rains and high
ocean tides."
Thailand's Rangsit University, Climate Change and Disaster
Centre's director Seri Suprathit stated on a local TV show on
August 12 there is a 70% likelihood Thailand's central, eastern and
southern regions, especially on the central plains, experiencing
flooding over the next two months - September and October.
Ayutthaya province is expected to be hardest hit because of its
limited water retention area in the Chao Phraya River basin, the
Thai PBS World echoed.
Suprathit added that the floods this year will not be as bad as
the catastrophic flooding of 2011, because excess water had been
released through major dams in the north.
Pineapple crops, usually grown on higher ground, are overall
less impacted by floods than other key agricultural plantings such
as corn, rice or tapioca. However, excessive rainfall could result
in wet and soggy soil, hampering harvesting.
Floods since late July were reported to have damaged sweetcorn
plantations in the north of the country. Situation improved in the
second week of August, as heavy rains transitioned to rain sprays
and strong sunshine, benefiting plantings.
No negative impact - because of rainfall -has been reported on
pineapple plantations to date (August 17). The ongoing raw material
shortage situation, sharpened in the drought period, is expected to
continue until December.
Indonesia
Pineapple plantings in Indonesia are currently benefiting from a
"wet-dry season" so far, as a local industry source recently
described. "Weather is really favorable this year for pineapple
plantations. As opposed to last year, where rains stopped since
mid-May onwards, this year is raining even in August, at least two
times per week.
The Philippines
Current weather situation in the Philippines is described by
sources as similar to that reported in Indonesia. "Right now we
have more rain and raw material volume than usual at this time of
the year".
The ENSO influence on pineapple crops in The Philippines had an
impact on tonnages during 2018 and 2019. "I think the influence
this year will not be that significant, as long as erosion does not
affect the ability to harvest fruit on time. It may affect planting
rate in the long term, but we can catch up on planting by doubling
up once weather is more favorable."
"The Philippines is always at the worse end of La Niña against
Indonesia and Thailand, as we are facing the Pacific Ocean.
Cyclones helped during the El Niño period though, by cutting long
drought spells. Anyway, we hope for the best this year, although
preparing for the worst," the local industry source concluded.