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Thousands of protesters have been gathering the past four
Saturdays in Belgrade, demanding, among other things, the
resignation of the Minister of the Interior and an end to political
violence.
Ongoing protests in Serbia are driven by deep-seated resentment
over perceived growing authoritarianism.
Protests are likely to remain peaceful, but will put pressure
on the government to call snap elections.
Despite growing disillusionment among much of the electorate, a
snap election in the six-month outlook is unlikely to produce a
change in government.
On 29 December 2018, civil society groups and opposition
activists held a fourth consecutive anti-government rally in
Belgrade. The protests, which began on 8 December and were
initially triggered by an assault on an opposition politician by
unknown men, have been sustained by more deep-seated resentment
against the incumbent administration and what is viewed as growing
authoritarianism in the country.
Growing pressure on government
The protests were originally triggered by an attack on 23
November against Borko Stefanović, the founder of Serbian Left
(Levica Srbije), a small opposition party. Unknown men using wooden
sticks attacked and bloodied Stefanović and his colleagues in
the Serbian town of Kruševac. The assailants were allegedly
arrested following the incident, but opposition figures claim that
the ruling Serbian Progressive Party (Srpska Napredna Stranka: SNS)
is behind the attack. The subsequent demonstrations have drawn tens
of thousands of supporters, representing a panoply of demands and
causes. In addition to an end to political violence, protesters
have been demanding the resignation of Interior Minister
Nebojša Stefanović, fairer elections, and equal
representation in Serbian media, accusing the ruling SNS party of
controlling the media landscape.
Although SNS enjoys a comfortable parliamentary majority, the
sheer size of the demonstrations has put significant pressure on
the incumbent administration. President Alexander Vučić,
the leader of SNS and de-facto ruler of Serbia, initially stated he
would not give in to protester demands, but backtracked on 25
December in a televised interview, saying he would listen to them.
He also added that if necessary, he would call snap elections to
get around any impasse. The latter option represents
Vučić's traditional way of silencing the opposition, with
snap elections having become a frequent phenomenon in Serbia in
recent years. Vučić has been able to use snap elections
as a weapon because SNS has remained unchallenged by the weak
opposition.
However, although the protests have steadily grown in numbers,
there is no clear organization or leadership in sight. Currently
there is no united opposition front that is able to fully harness
the potential of a mass protest movement. Opposition parties remain
ideologically divided and weak compared to SNS. Moreover, although
some of the demands of the protesters are concrete, others remain
vague. Without a clear focus and organization, protesters are
unlikely to produce any material change. If the outcome of these
protests is a snap election, the opposition remains unprepared.
Outlook and implications
The recent developments have significantly increased the risk of
a snap election in the six-month outlook. Although the protests
represent growing disillusionment among a big portion of Serbia's
middle class, the lack of organized opposition makes it unlikely
that snap elections would produce a radically different outcome
from the current situation. A strong support base, a sympathetic
media landscape, and relatively strong support from the West due to
the pro-EU stance of Vučić, which has served to
legitimize his government, makes it likely that SNS would reconfirm
its primacy in Serbian politics following an election. The main
indicator to watch that would signal a growing challenge to
Vučić and the SNS is the emergence of an organized
political opposition, either through a coalition of existing
opposition parties, or the emergence of a new political movement
out of the recent protests. Both options remain currently unlikely.
However, leaving protester concerns unaddressed increases the risk
of protests such as these becoming a recurrent phenomenon in the
future, increasing also the risk of them turning violent as
parliamentary challenge to Vučić's hold on power remains
elusive.
Posted 09 January 2019 by Dijedon Imeri, Senior Analyst, Country Risk, Economics & Country Risk, IHS Markit