Obtain the data you need to make the most informed decisions by accessing our extensive portfolio of information, analytics, and expertise. Sign in to the product or service center of your choice.
Over the course of the first month of Russia's invasion of
Ukraine over 3.6 million
refugees left Ukraine, according to the United Nations, with
another 7 million people internally displaced in Ukraine.
Impact: European countries, especially Hungary, Moldova,
Poland, Romania, and Slovakia
According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees
(UNHCR), Filippo Grandi, the current outflows of people from
Ukraine represent "the fastest growing refugee crisis in Europe
since World War II". The UNHCR expects up to four million people to
move from Ukraine to neighboring countries as the fighting
continues; according to European Commissioner for Crisis Management
Janez Lenarčič, this number is likely to reach up to around seven
million.
The biggest immediate impact of this movement will remain on
Ukraine's neighboring countries, with the majority of Ukrainians
arriving in Poland, as well as Hungary, Moldova, Romania, and
Slovakia. Unlike in the case of Middle Eastern migrants stranded on
the Belarusian border with Poland in late 2021 or the arrival of
irregular migrants to Europe in and soon after 2015, European Union
(EU) governments have offered immediate protection and
accommodation to Ukrainian refugees from the conflict with
Russia.
On 27 February, the European Commission announced all EU
countries would accept Ukrainian refugees for three years without
having to apply for asylum. Ukrainians have been crossing via
regular border checkpoints as a result of visa-free access to the
Schengen Area since 2017.
Poland, which so far has received the majority of Ukrainian
refugee arrivals, was expecting up to one million refugees prior to
the conflict; this number was reached on 6 March, 11 days into the
conflict, with more people arriving daily. The impact on the
country's state resources and capacity is likely to be mitigated by
the disbursement of EUR500 million (USD551 million) in EU funding
for humanitarian aid. Nonetheless, the large inflow of people
causing long waiting times at the Polish-Ukrainian border (up to 72
hours) will continue increasing the number of crossings into
Slovakia and Hungary.
Slovakia, in particular, is likely to struggle to house a large
influx of people, with the authorities prepared initially only for
around 30,000 arrivals. The number of arrivals has already largely
surpassed the expected capacity, with logistical organization,
transport, and accommodation provided primarily by Slovakian
volunteers. As a result, the lack of state co-ordination and
preparedness increases the risk of opportunistic and organized
crime, including human trafficking. Slovakia has for long served as
a transit destination for trafficked women and children,
particularly at its borders with Ukraine. Unconfirmed anecdotal
evidence cited in Slovakian media reports suggests some individuals
offering transport "only to young girls".
Of non-Slavic-speaking countries, Romania and Moldova are likely
to respond to tens of thousands of arrivals mainly through building
capacity quickly to host them for a prolonged period. However, they
are likely to struggle in this despite ongoing initiatives by civil
society groups and non-profit organizations, as well as the
distribution of EU funds to offset costs on the government.
Flows of refugees traversing national borders, by car, bus, and
on foot, and priority given to passenger traffic at most border
crossings will continue to cause delays to ground cargo movement,
primarily westward from Ukraine. According to national media
reports and anecdotal evidence, the delays are up to 72 hours on
the Polish-Ukrainian border and 35 hours on the Slovakian-Ukrainian
border. Movement of migrants from Moldova into Romania and from
Romania into Bulgaria is also likely to cause traffic delays of
between several hours and a few days. Even after the refugee
arrivals eased, ground cargo would highly likely remain subject to
delays, not least due to the high level of inspections and heavy
presence of military and security guards at the Ukrainian
borders.
Indicators of change
The closure of selected border crossings and/or all crossings
by some of Ukraine's neighboring countries over their governments'
concerns about proximity of military action and/or lack of state
capacity to process migrants (e.g., lack of available staff) would
likely increase pressure significantly on the remaining countries
to absorb numbers of refugees above planned capacity.
Reports of increasing delays at border crossings of selected
neighboring countries would also divert migrant flows to remaining
countries, having an impact on the latter's border crossings.
EU assistance, including organized resettlement routes to
countries such as Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Spain and
Sweden, would alleviate pressure on Ukraine's neighbors and help
them to manage the influx of refugees.
Assistance from other European countries (e.g., provision of
police or military personnel) would also assist Ukraine's immediate
neighbors to manage the refugee flows.
We continue to cover the impact of
irregular migration and how it impacts the stability of
societies and economies. Want an overview of why this is a critical
issue to watch? Listen to our podcast.
Posted 28 March 2022 by Lindsay Newman, Ph.D., Director, Economics & Country Risk, IHS Markit
This article was published by S&P Global Market Intelligence and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.
