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Russia invasion - Impacts and Scenarios
Russia and Ukraine are major exporters of grains (corn & wheat) and vegetable oils (sunflower oil). Their importance in ag commodities world trade has grown over time.
World corn export origins have shifted over the last 15 years, market share has shifted away from the US, south to Brazil and Argentina, and east to Ukraine. World soybean export origins have also shifted with the US and Argentina's market share declining and Brazil now making up roughly 50% of world exports. Lastly, world wheat export origins have shifted with the United States & EU losing 14% of world trade market share at the same time Russia and Ukraine gained 18%. Listen as our agribusiness experts share how the Russia-Ukraine war impacts global agricultural markets:
The bullish crude oil markets continue and it is likely we will see spikes up to the $150 per barrel mark.
Since the start of the conflict, commodities including oil grains, vegetable oils, oil seeds, have increased sharply, while equity markets have fallen. Watch this update for the themes/ sign posts we've set out to track as events unfold.
With Russian banks being cut from the SWIFT banking system, secific exemptions have ben made for export transactions with Germany, Italy and a few other EU countries. A decision has not been made on food and ag export transactions, however here are a few considerations:
Policy and Politics - though the situation remains very fluid, there are several areas to focus on, including the response of the market to the talks between Russia and Ukraine.
Crop Commodities Market Insights and Forecasting
This article was published by S&P Global Commodity Insights and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.
- Canada relaxes rules governing gene-edited crops
- Brazil debates sustainable ag and its lack of international recognition
- US EPA seeks partial rehearing of Ninth Circuit glyphosate ruling
- HPAI in the U.S.
- Grains and oilseeds under strain
- Special Report: Food & Ag Commodity Inflation
- US lawmaker tables bill to rein EPA’s pesticide regulatory powers
- Modelling the Potential Pressure of Fall Armyworm in Key Corn Markets