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Russia invasion - Impacts and Scenarios

31 March 2022 Paul Hughes Peter Rohde

Russia and Ukraine are major exporters of grains (corn & wheat) and vegetable oils (sunflower oil). Their importance in ag commodities world trade has grown over time.

World corn export origins have shifted over the last 15 years, market share has shifted away from the US, south to Brazil and Argentina, and east to Ukraine. World soybean export origins have also shifted with the US and Argentina's market share declining and Brazil now making up roughly 50% of world exports. Lastly, world wheat export origins have shifted with the United States & EU losing 14% of world trade market share at the same time Russia and Ukraine gained 18%. Listen as our agribusiness experts share how the Russia-Ukraine war impacts global agricultural markets:

Watch our March 31st, 2022 Update:

The bullish crude oil markets continue and it is likely we will see spikes up to the $150 per barrel mark.

Watch our March 3, 2022 Update:

Since the start of the conflict, commodities including oil grains, vegetable oils, oil seeds, have increased sharply, while equity markets have fallen. Watch this update for the themes/ sign posts we've set out to track as events unfold.

Watch our March 2, 2022 Update:

With Russian banks being cut from the SWIFT banking system, secific exemptions have ben made for export transactions with Germany, Italy and a few other EU countries. A decision has not been made on food and ag export transactions, however here are a few considerations:

Watch our February 28, 2022 Update:

Policy and Politics - though the situation remains very fluid, there are several areas to focus on, including the response of the market to the talks between Russia and Ukraine.

Watch our February 22, 2022 Update:

Crop Commodities Market Insights and Forecasting

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Posted 31 March 2022 by Paul Hughes, Chief Agricultural Economist & Director of Research, Agribusiness, IHS Markit and

Peter Rohde, Vice President, IHS Markit Food and Agricultural Commodities Economics



This article was published by S&P Global Commodity Insights and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.

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