Obtain the data you need to make the most informed decisions by accessing our extensive portfolio of information, analytics, and expertise. Sign in to the product or service center of your choice.
Results from the second round of Peru’s presidential election
02 July 2021Veronica Burford
Results from the second round of Peru's 6 June presidential
election show that at the time of writing on 28 June far-left
candidate Pedro Castillo had received 50.12% of the vote. With 100%
of votes counted, the National Elections Jury (Jurado Nacional de
Elecciones: JNE) has stated that it will announce the winner of the
election only once a process of review and resolution of requests
for annulment has concluded.
Pedro Castillo from far-left Free Peru (Perú Libre: PL)
party was the frontrunner with 50.12%, while conservative candidate
Keiko Fujimori of the Popular Force (Fuerza Popular: FP) party had
49.87%.
The candidates are separated by a difference of only 44,058
votes. The JNE is currently reviewing FP's 802 appeals to annul the
vote at some polling stations, with 200,000 votes at stake.
Fujimori has continued to claim that irregularities have taken
place in the vote. Electoral authorities have rejected the claims,
and international observers have said that the elections were free
and fair. The appeals are mainly concentrated in the centre and
south of the country, where Castillo obtained 65-85% of votes. The
atypical number of legal appeals is delaying the transfer of
government, with the new president scheduled to take office on 28
July. Normally, the handover of power starts immediately after
results are confirmed, which in previous elections has happened
within two weeks of the election.
Altercations between pro-Castillo and pro-Fujimori
supporters occurred following the early results, but demonstrations
have remained peaceful in the days since.
Post-election protests are likely to extend for several weeks
while an announcement by the JNE is pending, and are likely to be
concentrated in Lima near the historic centre and outside National
Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos
Electorales: ONPE) and JNE offices. Fujimori supporters are likely
to continue daily rallies in Lima near Paseo Colón and Campo Marte
to demand the annulment of votes. Protests are likely to escalate
if Castillo supporters, including grassroots movements such as the
Unique National Central of Peasant Patrols of Peru (Central Única
Nacional de Rondas Campesinas del Perú: CUNARC-P), carry out
parallel demonstrations in the area, increasing the risk of violent
altercations between supporters of rival candidates, with security
forces using tear gas to disperse protesters.
If the JNE declares Castillo president, he is likely to
seek to revise the 1993 Constitution, increase corporate taxes, and
renegotiate extractive-sector contracts.
Castillo's programme proposes an increased role for the state,
revising the 1993 Constitution to "recover strategic resources".
Although he originally proposed expropriating the main mining
sites, Castillo is now likely to seek instead that 70-80% of
companies' profits be retained by the state. Currently, the all-in
tax rate for the Peruvian mining sector amounts to 47% of profits.
Castillo also intends to negotiate with the Camisea Consortium, led
by Pluspetrol, so that it allocates all of its production to the
domestic market, with 70% of its profits going to the state. To
impose such contract changes, Castillo would be likely to seek a
reform to Title 3 (the Economic Regime) of the Constitution, which
guarantees the functions of a market economy and delimits the role
of the state to one of subsidiarity.
Opposition parties in Congress are likely to oppose
policies that radically alter conditions affecting investors,
risking possible confrontations between Castillo and the
legislature, and increasing the risk of impeachment.
Amending the Constitution would require the backing of 67 of the
130 members of Congress, followed by approval in a public
referendum, which remains unlikely. Most of the centre and
centre-right parties represented in the next Congress will be
broadly sympathetic to the continuation of the current
business-friendly approach. Any president who wants to avoid an
impeachment vote will need support from at least 44 members of the
130-member Congress. PL will be the largest party in Congress with
37 of 130 seats, but Castillo is only likely to form a coalition
with left-of-centre's Together for Peru (Juntos por el Perú: JPP),
leaving him with 42 votes. If he wins, Castillo will need to
negotiate his programme with centrist and centre-right parties,
which will severely constrain his agenda. In doing so, he may
alienate his left-wing support, decreasing his prospects of pushing
through policy. His scope for policy manoeuvre may be further
limited by moves by the outgoing conservative majority in Congress
to push ahead with appointments to the Constitutional Tribunal, to
ensure a conservative majority.
A Fujimori victory would be very likely to result in
broad continuity in economic policy, promoting private investment
in the mining sector.
Fujimori does not support changes to the Constitution and would
maintain the existing mining code, which dates from the 1990s, both
designed by her father, former president Alberto Fujimori
(1990-2000).
Posted 02 July 2021 by Veronica Retamales Burford, Senior Research Analyst, Latin America Country Risk, IHS Markit
Join our webinar as our subject matter experts walk through key trends affecting each stage of the supply chain and… https://t.co/mFpMs3XP5G
May 06
{"items" : [
{"name":"share","enabled":true,"desc":"<strong>Share</strong>","mobdesc":"Share","options":[ {"name":"facebook","url":"https://www.facebook.com/sharer.php?u=http%3a%2f%2fihsmarkit.com%2fresearch-analysis%2fresults-from-the-second-round-of-perus-presidential-election.html","enabled":true},{"name":"twitter","url":"https://twitter.com/intent/tweet?url=http%3a%2f%2fihsmarkit.com%2fresearch-analysis%2fresults-from-the-second-round-of-perus-presidential-election.html&text=Results+from+the+second+round+of+Peru%e2%80%99s+presidential+election+%7c+IHS+Markit+","enabled":true},{"name":"linkedin","url":"https://www.linkedin.com/sharing/share-offsite/?url=http%3a%2f%2fihsmarkit.com%2fresearch-analysis%2fresults-from-the-second-round-of-perus-presidential-election.html","enabled":true},{"name":"email","url":"?subject=Results from the second round of Peru’s presidential election | IHS Markit &body=http%3a%2f%2fihsmarkit.com%2fresearch-analysis%2fresults-from-the-second-round-of-perus-presidential-election.html","enabled":true},{"name":"whatsapp","url":"https://api.whatsapp.com/send?text=Results+from+the+second+round+of+Peru%e2%80%99s+presidential+election+%7c+IHS+Markit+ http%3a%2f%2fihsmarkit.com%2fresearch-analysis%2fresults-from-the-second-round-of-perus-presidential-election.html","enabled":true}]}, {"name":"rtt","enabled":true,"mobdesc":"Top"}
]}