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At IHS Markit, we have gone through the annual exercise of
ranking solar phovoltaic EPC providers in the previous year, noting
a new wave of consolidation and some reshuffling among the market
leaders. In 2019 the 30 largest EPC providers installed 28 GW of
non-residential PV, representing 26% of the total market. This
increase from 21% in 2018 stems mainly from a growing concentration
in the Chinese PV market, as well as integrator concentration in
rapidly growing markets like Spain and Vietnam. Large project sizes
also contributed to greater market shares among the largest
companies. More than 140 PV parks larger than 100 MW in size were
completed in 2019, representing 30% of the global PV market
(excluding residential systems). In 2018, parks above 100 MW
counted for less than a quarter of non-residential PV addition
From our analysis, in 2019, PowerChina installed 2.5 GW of PV to
sail to the top of the ranking, from a fourth position in 2018.
This was possible through one gigawatt installed in China, another
gigawatt in Vietnam, and several projects in Latin America. At
second position, we find inverter supplier, Sungrow, which took a
6% share of the Chinese market as it continued to grow its EPC
business. Following PowerChina and Sungrow, we have Prodiel and
Sterling and Wilson, thanks to their leading regional positions in
Latin America and Africa and the Middle East, respectively. These
four EPC providers installed 8 GW of PV combined in 2019, each
taking a 2% share of the global EPC market.
In the three largest non-residential PV markets - China, the
United States and India - we observe that local companies dominated
the EPC rankings also in 2019. An 11% year-on-year decline in PV
additions in China contributed to a consolidation among EPC
providers in this traditionally fragmented market. Of the 29 GW of
non-residential PV plants added in 2019, the largest EPCs -
Sungrow, PowerChina and TBEA Xinjiang Sun Oasis - installed 13%, up
from 9% in 2018. As we project China to add more PV in 2020 than in
2019, these providers' market shares are likely to be diluted
again. In the United States, the five largest EPCs installed 27% or
new non-residential PV capacity in 2019. At 10% market share,
Swinerton Renewable Energy, maintained its position as the
preferred EPC contractor in the country. First Solar and Cypress
Creek Renewables, both among the top five companies in 2019, have
both stated that they will exit the EPC segment. This creates
opportunities for established, local EPCs, as well as for the
emerging group of international companies that are eyeing the
growing US PV market. In the highly price sensitive Indian PV
market, the top 5 integrators installed 37% of the PV plants in
2019. The local EPC/developer Azure Power, which is owned by
foreign investors, took the lead in the country. As India's PV
market risks being cut in half in 2020, as a result of COVID-19,
further consolidation among the main EPCs is probable. Of these
three major markets in 2019, only the United States is likely to
see an increasing participation of international EPCs, as margins
are more attractive.
Outside the three largest PV markets, we observe a mix of
international and local EPC providers in the top positions.
Australia has shown difficult to operate in, illustrated by the
fall of local EPC, previous market leader, RCR Tomlinson two years
ago. As many active third-party providers steer away from the PV
segment in Australia, international developers increasingly perform
in-house EPC using local contractors. A more fertile ground for
third-party EPC providers developed in 2019 in Spain and Vietnam.
Spanish EPCs dominated the country's 5 GW of installations in 2019,
with the top five providers supplying a stunning 77% of the market.
In Vietnam, the five largest EPCs supplied a third of the market.
This market that grew from close to nothing to install 6 GW last
year, attracted a mix of Chinese, Japanese, European and Indian EPC
providers.
On the other end of the spectrum, Germany is a consistently
local and fragmented PV market. The small system sizes, generally
below 10 MW, contributes to a market where the ten largest EPCs do
not exceed a fifth of the 3.5 GW market. Only one company,
Enerparc, has succeeded in gaining significant market share, by
installing 9% of Germany's non-residential PV systems in 2019. The
company thrives on its success as a developer, including winning a
large portion of Germany's PV tenders.
What market share trends do we see for 2020? In a normal year,
by the fourth quarter we already have an idea of the global EPC
rankings for the current year. We know if the large projects are
being completed as planned. Some less transparent markets or
companies may surprise us, but the general picture is usually
rather clear. 2020 is as you know different. From the supply chain
hick-ups in the first quarters, to lockdowns and safety measures,
many projects have been delayed. Projects are still at risk of
delays depending on the evolution of the pandemic. Additionally,
the recent increase in module prices complicates procurement for
EPCs that build projects with tight margins. Overall, we project
close to 100 GW of non-residential PV systems to be added in 2020,
down from 107 GW in 2019, which is more optimistic than we
initially thought back in April. The question is how market shares
will be distributed among the EPC providers. Who will meet
deadlines, and who has renegotiated terms? As companies keep quiet,
we eagerly await 2021 to dig into the details on projects completed
in 2020.
Josefin Berg is a research and analysis manager for the
Solar and Energy Storage research team, where she covers trends and
company strategies in the downstream part of the PV
market.
