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France's presidential and legislative elections, held in April
and June, have established a new political landscape for President
Emmanuel Macron's second five-year mandate, with the political
extremes having received increased support in both polls.
Although support for anti-establishment parties has also been
boosted by non-economic factors such as concerns about immigration
and crime, it tends to be stronger
in regions that have underperformed in terms of economic growth
since the last presidential elections. Departments that experienced
a worse performance in per capita real GDP growth during the
2017-22 period showed, on average, higher levels of support for the
RN (Rassemblement National: RN) than other regions.
Support for the RN is highly concentrated in rural or
lower-income areas in the northeast, center and southwest of the
country. Other than in Seine-Saint-Denis, Le Pen won in nine of the
top 10 departments with the highest poverty rates in the country in
the presidential election runoff on 24 April.
Regional inequalities have increased, favoring further
political migration towards the political extremes
While France's real GDP per capita grew by 15.8% between 2000
and 2019, the national average masks significant regional
disparities (see chart). As an illustration, real GDP per capita in
Paris and Hauts de Seine, the top two departments in terms of real
GDP per capita, rose by around 33% during the period. The measure
however only increased by just 5% in Creuse, the department with
the lowest real GDP per capita.
In absolute terms, the disparity in regional inequality is
elevated with a strong concentration of economic activity. Out of
France's 96 departments, the three richest departments (Paris,
Hauts-de-Seine and Rhône) account for 22% of France's total GDP
(although Paris' GDP per capita is overestimated due to people who
work in the city but live outside the capital). By contrast, the
bottom 10 departments contribute only 1.3% to France's total real
GDP in 2022.
Regional inequality is likely to widen over the next
five years
While GDP per capita is an imperfect measure of living
standards, higher inflation and slowing economic growth is likely
to have a particularly acute impact on lower-income households, at
least over the two-year horizon, increasing the likelihood of
violent protests in Paris and in the worst-performing areas, along
with more frequent industrial action, during 2023 and 2024.
Projected real GDP growth for 2022-27 looks likely to reinforce
the 2017-22 trend (see map below); Haute-Marne, Meuse, Vosges, and
Ardennes are projected to register negative GDP growth. The share
of votes for RN, or other far-right, far-left, or
anti-establishment parties that may emerge by the next presidential
election is therefore likely to remain high in these departments.
Their performance is likely to be stronger if economic grievances,
particularly those related to purchasing power and unemployment
persist - or worsen - throughout during the 2022-27 period.
Due to structural weaknesses, high inflation, and a lack of
major strategic development plans for poorer departments, regional
policy is unlikely to reduce the growth gap versus wealthier
departments, increasing the risk of further substantial change in
the political landscape after the next electoral cycle.
