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Joining the club of European countries that have installed at
least 1 GW in total solar power in 2019, Poland has been called
"Europe's latest shooting star" on near-tripling its installed
capacity to reach 3.6 GW in a report by trade body SolarPower
Europe.
Bulgaria and Romania also raised their solar game. Bulgaria and
Romania, with over 1 GW capacity each, entered the trade body's top
10 EU solar growth markets through 2024. The Czech Republic reached
2 GW of capacity in 2019 but has lower solar targets, so Poland is
set to lead the regional solar market in the short term.
Poland's solar market should remain the largest of these four
over the next three years, reaching 11.9 GW by the end of 2024,
followed by Bulgaria with 3.8 GW and Romania with 3.3 GW. The
predictions are based on solar targets presented in each country's
EU-mandated 10-year national energy and climate plan.
Bulgaria and Romania will account for 3% of the European solar
power market, and Poland will account for 6% by 2024, as the EU
pressures these countries to phase coal-fired generation out.
Currently, Romania and Bulgaria help their coal plants to buy
required EU carbon emission allowances (EUAs), but risk coming into
conflict with the EU's State Aid rules, according to a study
released by the Southeast Europe Energy Transition Network. It
estimated that coal plants in Bulgaria and Romania receive
subsidies amounting to €450 million ($546.9 million) and €200
million per year, respectively.
The solar power levels per capita targeted by these Eastern
European countries are currently below the European average. The
country with the most planned solar per capita and the greatest
installed capacity is Germany at 54.6 GW. Across the entire EU,
last year's level of solar growth is predicted to continue,
implying average EU-wide growth of 19.8 GW per year.
Poland
Residential "prosumers" and the "clear will" of the government
drove the near trebling of solar capacity in Poland. Poland added
1.7 GW between October 2019 and 2020, with an average capacity of
6.5 kW in addition to its established net metering,
feed-in-tariffs, auctions and power purchase agreement (PPA)
segment. "Poland has experienced an unexpectedly strong boom of
prosumer installations in 2020, helped by the My Electricity
program," said IHS Senior Analyst Susanne von Aichberger, citing
preliminary IHS Markit figures.
Poland launched the My Electricity scheme in August 2019, and it
saw a rush of last-minute applications ahead of the closing of an
application round in December 2020. Under the program, residential
consumers added solar (photovoltaic) PV through subsidized arrays
ranging from 2 to 10 kW, for which 50% of the costs were paid.
Residents received electricity bill discounts in exchange for
delivering surplus solar electricity back to the grid.
The scheme should further boost solar capacity over the early
2020s as the government may launch another application round with a
broader scope in the first half of 2021, according to
Aichberger.
SolarPower Europe forecasts 46% annual solar capacity growth in
Poland through 2024, as renewable energy prices drop, coal is
phased out, and distributed energy technology emerges. Adding it
up, SolarPower Europe sees the potential for another threefold
increase in Polish PV capacity by 2024. Yet, relative to the rest
of the EU, Poland is expected to shrink from a 12% solar market
share today to 6% in 2024 amid the rise of France and other EU
solar markets.
"The current state of solar in Poland indicates that it is
finally becoming a relevant market at the global scale," Stanislaw
Pietruszko, Chief Executive of the Polish Society for
Photovoltaics, wrote in the SolarPower Europe report.
Solar power volumes in Poland are accelerating even though 75%
of the country's power demand is met by coal, and direct energy
supply laws and EU Emissions Trading Scheme cost exemptions for
energy-intensive firms hinder PPAs, according to the trade
body.
Poland finally consented to the EU's preliminary deal on its 55%
emissions cuts goal for 2030, having won more time to try to gain
concessions for cleaning up its coal-based energy system. Deputy
Climate Minister Adam Guibourgé-Czetwertynski said the country is committed
to "climate neutrality."
Bulgaria
Meantime, "introducing an auction system could provide
incentives and unlock the immense solar potential in Bulgaria, one
of the highest in Europe," said SolarPower Europe. The country
lacks an auction system for utility-scale PV, but such an auction
would allow the Bulgarian solar market to truly take off.
Bulgaria, which like Poland depends largely upon coal for its
power, will grow its solar sector. However, it will leave its ample
sunshine resources untapped. Its 3 MW target for 2030 does not
reflect the full potential of the country's sunny south, according
to an IHS Markit report. Bulgaria intends to put 94 MW of smaller
PV projects (between 0.5 and 1 MW) out to tender on the free market
under changes to the 2003 Energy Act (EA),
writes law firm CMS, and Bulgaria is also looking to expand
solar by enabling businesses to purchase systems for their direct
energy needs, according to IHS Markit analysts.
Romania
As with Bulgaria, SolarPower Europe contends that Romania has
significant unused solar resources, but it has more praise for the
country's solar-related targets in its national energy and climate
plan. The country aims to reach over 5 MW of solar capacity by
2030. While no specific targets for batteries and energy storage
are made in the plan, and its auction plans are not concrete,
Romania does plan for a prosumer support scheme, a smart meter
rollout, dynamic pricing, and market design rules to accommodate
energy storage. Plans like these could benefit solar, SolarPower
Europe said.
Romania's energy efficiency plan under development, the
EU-mandated Long Term Renovation Strategy, foresees adding 2.5 TWh
in rooftop solar power by 2030, accounting for 46.3% of the total
projected solar increase by 2030, it added.
Unlike Poland, Romania did not resist the EU's proposed 55%
emissions reduction goal even though coal accounts for about 20% of
the energy mix and it plans to use natural gas to ease its
transition.
Czech Republic
The Czech Republic appears to be falling behind in the race to
install solar power. The solar target outlined in its national
energy and climate plan is "underwhelming," according to the report
by SolarPower Europe. The country's solar power is set to grow by
1.9 GW by 2030, according to a recent statement by Deputy Prime
Minister and Minister of Industry and Trade Karel Havlíče. But that
falls shy of its economic potential of 3-7 GW, said SolarPower
Europe, citing data from the Czech Solar Association. The country
will install the majority of its solar arrays at a 5-kW capacity
level or less.
"Overall, it appears that the Czech plan is in line with the
government plans to rely on nuclear power in the future," wrote the
trade body in its analysis of the plan on its website. It also said
that the Czech government's plans to introduce retroactive changes
on the level of support for solar schemes "could significantly
endanger the development of solar PV in the country."
Posted 26 January 2021 by Cristina Brooks, Senior Journalist, Climate & Sustainability, IHS Markit