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Global PMI Future Output Index at survey-record low…
…as economic, political and trade worries intensify
No-deal Brexit risk and trade war developments add to
concerns
Anecdotal evidence from global survey panellists shows that the
worldwide outlook is becoming increasingly gloomy. Long-running
trends such as trade wars and political tensions continue to dampen
businesses' forecasts, while new tensions in Asia add to fears of
an uncertain future.
IHS Markit's Purchasing Managers' Index®
(PMI®) surveys ask contributing companies to report on
changes in key business metrics such as activity, new orders,
exports, input prices, inventories and employment, and to also
provide views on their future expectations. Globally, the surveys
compile responses from around 28,000 companies in over 40 countries
monthly.
Alongside these responses, panellists are invited to provide
additional qualitative information on the reasons as to why these
variables or (in the case of future expectations) their views have
changed from the previous month. Our panel comments tool collects
data tracking the frequency of words or phrases mentioned in these
qualitative replies. Analysing these data over time gives helpful
insight into the key trends affecting businesses both nationally
and globally, and thereby reveals the driving forces behind changes
in the 'hard' data.
Gloomiest outlook since 2012
The Future Output Index in the J.P. Morgan Global Composite PMI
was the lowest in the seven-year history in July. This is based on
businesses' outlooks regarding activity over the coming year.
Panel comments illustrate the reasons why businesses have become
less upbeat. In general, besides a dip in current sales, these
gloomier prospects often reflected growing uncertainty across the
globe due to the news flow of weaker economic data, lower sales
enquiries, political tensions and a deteriorating trade
environment. In fact, July saw the highest number of comments
surrounding these themes since December 2012, having previously
spiked during the financial crisis and EU debt
crisis.1
Many of the concerns leading to dampened forecasts have been
developing over the past year. Chief among them is the US-China
trade war, which escalated in May after the US raised tariffs on
$200bn worth of Chinese goods. May and June surveys subsequently
saw negative panel comments about the impact of the trade war
swell. They dipped back down in July, however, as commitments at
the G7 summit to reopen trade deal negotiations allowed for a
calmer business environment.
Nevertheless, August survey data may signal renewed concerns
among global panellists. President Trump's announcement on 1st
August of tariffs on the remaining $300bn of Chinese exports is
likely to severely reduce any hopes of a break-through deal, as
well as damage business sentiment and trigger fresh concerns about
the world economy for the rest of the year.
PMI data have already revealed growing risk to the global
economy. Manufacturing conditions have been deteriorating since
May, while services activity has seen moderating growth since
earlier in the year. Comments from firms on local and international
economic conditions have also become increasingly pessimistic. As
such, in recent weeks, investors have moved to safe havens while
the Fed and many Asian central banks lowered interest rates,
showing that predictions from the PMI surveys are now being
realised further afield.
Brexit remains another key theme in comments from businesses
positing an uncertain outlook. Panellists are highlighting a
greater risk of a no-deal scenario, as the relationship between the
new UK government and the EU appears to fracture. This is a grave
concern not just for UK firms. Brexit issues and worries of a hard
border with Northern Ireland meant comments from the Irish panel of
a negative impact on future output reached the highest so far in
July. Other countries such as Germany have also seen Brexit worries
increasingly appear as causes for gloomier outlooks.
More recent issues such as Japan-South Korea tensions and
protests in Hong Kong have also been flared by global panellists.
The former has seen bilateral trade deteriorate rapidly, as export
controls from Japan have led South Korean businesses and consumers
to boycott Japanese products. This could grow into a wider concern,
particularly for many tech companies whose supply chains depend
strongly on the region. Meanwhile, protests in Hong Kong have
gained momentum and are particularly harming business activity,
with the Hong Kong PMI at a decade-low in July.
All of this is feeding a heightened degree of global
uncertainty. Comments from panellists including the word
"uncertain" have been building for some time, as themes such as
Brexit and the US-China trade war develop. July saw comments from
non-UK businesses reach the most frequent in the series history.
This is unsurprising, as the twisting and turning nature of these
issues makes it difficult for companies to forecast their own
future.
With the PMI covering a broad range of countries, the surveys
remain a key barometer of global business sentiment, while
anecdotal evidence from panellists offers a powerful illustration
of the concerns affecting firms worldwide. For the rest of 2019,
the main story is one of mounting tensions, and an increasingly
melancholic outlook for global growth and geopolitical
relationships.
Our upcoming surveys will lend further insight into the issues
surrounding businesses globally.
1Number of mentions adjusted by the size of the
global panel over time.
Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) data are compiled by IHS Markit for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.
