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After the extreme unpredictability of 2020, the world is now
looking at 2021 with the hope to return to a certain normality
sooner rather than later. But patience may become the buzzword of
2021 as all aspects of normal life continue to be disturbed by the
COVID-19 pandemic. For the healthcare sector, 2021 will be a year
of constant adjustment, with many implications in terms of
strategic planning, market access, and geopolitical influence. In
this blog, our team is pleased to share its top 10 predictions for
the sector in 2021 and beyond.
Risk of cost-containment: Healthcare spending
will again remain elevated in 2021 as countries maintain efforts to
contain the COVID-19 pandemic. Investment in vaccines and hospital
care will remain high, and that means public purse strings will be
tightened as soon as we return to some form of normality.
Pressure on prices: After the
unprecedented level of public funding invested in pharmaceutical
R&D, governments will expect a ''return on investment'' with
significant price reductions likely to be required from drug and
vaccine makers.
Messenger RNA (mRNA) technology comes of age:
With the approval of the first mRNA vaccines from Pfizer (US)/
BioNTech (Germany) and Moderna (US), the future of mRNA technology
looks bright, both for vaccines and other therapeutic areas.
Chinese biotech ambitions continue to rise:
With the race to develop a COVID-19 vaccine, we are just seeing the
tip of the iceberg of what China can do in the biotech space. In
particular, local startups are set to bring CAR-T therapies to the
market soon, with aggressive discount strategy set to represent a
significant threat to competitors.
Vaccine diplomacy: Healthcare is more than
ever at the center of the geopolitical game. Various countries are
using COVID-19 vaccines to forge alliances and gain worldwide
influence. At the same time, the industry is facing a rise in
protectionism and efforts to repatriate production away from
countries that wield too much control over global active
pharmaceutical ingredient (API) supplies.
HTA in new territories: More weight will be
given to drug cost evaluation in several EU countries, with 2021
also set to see an expansion of health technology assessment into
new territories.
Greater transparency around pricing and development
costs: the transparency push is definitely a growing
threat as countries increasingly refer to cross-border
collaboration and sharing of pricing and cost information to
improve affordability.
International reference pricing (IRP) as key tool to
manage drug prices: In 2021, all eyes remain on the
potential introduction of IRP in the US and changes to IRP
regulations in Canada. Other countries, notably in the Commonwealth
of Independent States (CIS) countries, have also made significant
progress towards introducing IRP as part of their drug pricing
process.
Environmental and sustainability standards emerging in
drug procurement:. 2021 is set to confirm a growing
interest for environmental, social, and governance (ESG) tender
award criteria - notably in Europe. For the industry, this means
increased scrutiny on their environmental footprint
internationally.
Compulsory licensing has re-emerged: The
COVID-19 pandemic has rekindled the controversial question of
compulsory licensing, with concrete threats to intellectual
property rights for innovative firms.
