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Pakistan's State Minister of Health Zafar Mirza told reporters
at a briefing on 22 June that the federal government had identified
500 coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) hotspots across the
country, and that localised lockdowns would be employed to stem
outbreaks in these areas.
This strategy - designated "smart lockdowns" - will replace the
broad, wholesale restrictions that Prime Minister Imran Khan has
deemed unviable in Pakistan due to their impact on the country's
economy and working class. Nevertheless, despite the easing of
nationwide and provincial lockdowns since May, COVID-19 infections
and deaths have continued to increase and had reached more than
185,000 and nearly 4,000 respectively as of 22 June, straining the
country's underdeveloped health systems.
Significance
The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI)-led government's handling of
the pandemic has been criticised by opposition parties, and public
support for Khan's government has likely fallen. This raises the
probability of growing disunity within the PTI because of the
party's faltering public support or that the military, which has so
far been a key political ally of the prime minister, increasingly
perceives that government has mishandled the health crisis.
Although the military likely continues to view Khan as its most
reliable partner in civilian politics, a further deterioration of
the COVID-19 virus outbreak in Pakistan and a deepening of economic
challenges linked to the pandemic would likely compel the military
to abandon its support for the prime minister in order to maintain
its own public support. With parliamentary elections not due until
2023, the military in this scenario would seek to orchestrate a
change in political leadership outside the election cycle in the
six-month outlook, though retain the current coalition.
Alternatively, the military would likely also consider supporting
the formation of a caretaker government involving members of
opposition parties.
Violent unrest would be likely should the military fail to
orchestrate Khan's removal through negotiations with the PTI and
opposition parties, given that the military would then seek to
encourage anti-government protests involving several thousand
people to exert pressure on the prime minister.
Posted 25 June 2020 by Asad Ali, Head of Asia Pacific Country Risk Team, Country Risk & FCM, IHS Markit
