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Oil & Gas dividend revisions

23 March 2020

The oil-price collapse, as a result of the growing Covid-19 outbreak and the ensuing price war between OPEC+ members, has wiped out tens of billions of dollars in energy-company stock market value in the last weeks. This calls into question oil & gas companies' ability to sustain dividends, considering their financial flexibility and the debt owed to bondholders and banks in the coming years

As such, given this current environment we have reviewed forecasts for oil & gas companies globally and cut dividends for names underpinned by indicators such as Net Debt/EBITDA, Dividend Yield and debt maturing through FY22, signaling dividend sustainability risk.

We will continue monitoring our forecasts across the oil & gas sector, given the uncertainty presented by depressed oil prices and the Covid-19 situation globally.

Stock Name

Ticker

NetDebt/EBITDA

Curr. Div Yield

Forecast Div Yield

Debt- FY22

DivCut in past

Prev. FY20DPS

Rev. FY20DPS

Antero Midstr

AM

5.45.x

37.81%

15.70%

$959m

No

$1.23

$0.4

BP plc

BP

1.60x

13.20%

13.20%

No

Yes

$0.4225

$0.42

CNOOC

0883.HK

0.80x

6.50%

10.%

CNY 31bn

Yes

CNY 0.61

CNY 0.42

ConocoPhillips

COP

0.56x

5.58%

2.30%

$952m

Yes

$1.68

$0.64

Dialog Group

DIAL.KL

1.37x

1.20%

1.40%

No

Yes

MYR 0.016

MYR 0.015

Formosa Petro

6505.TW

1.30x

4.70%

3.30%

TWD 2.2bn

Yes

TWD 4.1

TWD 2.2

Genesis Energy

GEL

5.80x

58.36%

21.22%

$1.7bn

Yes

$2.2

$0.8

IRPC Pub Co

IRPC.BK

4.07x

1.90%

2.20%

THB 19bn

Yes

THB 0

THB 0

Kinder Morgan

KMI

5.34x

7.85%

5.10%

7.0bn

Yes

$1

$0.60

Murphy Oil

MUR

1.87x

16.88%

7.10%

$578m

Yes

$1

$0.4

Noble Energy

NBL

3.21x

11.61%

5.92%

$900m

Yes

$0.48

$0.24

ONEOK Inc

OKE

5.43x

15.84%

4.70%

$2.7bn

No

$3.74

$1

PetroChina

0857.HK

0.98x

4.90%

6.30%

CNY 73bn

Yes

CNY 0.11

CNY 0.05

PTT Expl

PTTEP.BK

0.05x

6.60%

9.10%

No

Yes

THB 2.5

THB 1.75

PTT Pub Co

PTT.BK

1.12x

6.10%

5.80%

THB 114bn

Yes

THB 1

THB 0.6

S Oil

010950.KS

3.72x

0.29%

0.30%

KRW 1560bn

Yes

KRW 2500

KRW 900

Sinopec

0386.HK

-0.03x

7.90%

8.90%

CNY 20bn

Yes

CNY 0.24

CNY 0.2

SK Innovation

096770.KS

2.86x

2.60%

5.60%

KRW 2350bn

Yes

KRW 3800

KRW 3000

TechnipFMC

FTI

0.23x

2.30%

0.00%

$1.3bn

Yes

$0.52

$0

Thai Oil Public

TOP.BK

5.19x

4.50%

5.50%

THB 6.0bn

Yes

THB 1.35

THB 1

Williams Corp

WMB

5.40x

11.86%

6.90%

$4.9bn

Yes

$1.6

$0.80

Wood Group

WG

2.00x

18.90%

18.70%

$200m

No

$0.358

$0.353

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