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Nuclear power development in Asia Pacific: Opportunities amid
challenges
Nuclear power development in the Asia Pacific region
Asia now hosts about one-fourth of operational nuclear power
units in the world. As of June 2021, six Asian markets and regions
(Japan, South Korea, mainland China, Taiwan, India, and Pakistan)
are running 113 reactors, totaling 97.4 GW, over half of which were
built before 2011 (see Figure 1). The 2011 Fukushima disaster
raised serious concerns about nuclear project safety. Most
countries have slowed down the new project approval, and many of
the projects that are still under construction have been reviewed
and delayed owing to a stricter safety check. Now, ten years since
the Fukushima tragedy, all the Asian governments have reconsidered
the future of nuclear in their regions.
Figure 1: Nuclear power capacity and number of reactors in the
Asia Pacific region, as of June 2021
Diverse trajectories of nuclear power policy across Asia
Pacific
Nuclear power development has presented diverse trajectories
across the Asia Pacific region in the post- Fukushima era. Active
markets have clear nuclear deployment plans and targets in place.
Conservative markets have the technical capability and operating
plants but are unlikely to approve new reactors, while the inactive
markets continue to be hesitant to introduce nuclear power plants
owing to technology and safety concerns (see Figure 2).
Figure 2: Major nuclear policies across Asia Pacific region
Who will lead the nuclear power development in Asia?
Mainland China and India are expected to lead Asia's nuclear
power development owing to robust power demand and strong
environmental pressures. Both countries' markets support nuclear
power and set clear installed capacity goals. The governments
target 70 GW by 2025 for mainland China and 27.5 GW by 2030 for
India.
Active markets of nuclear power development in Asia are scaling
up the game
Mainland China and India share many common drivers for nuclear
power development and are expected to be the primary promotors of
this industry in Asia Pacific. IHS Markit estimates the two
populous and rapidly growing markets will likely underpin 32% of
the world's total power demand additions during 2021-50. A
diversified power supply structure is necessary to meet such a
large amount of demand and will avoid substantial environmental
stress and fuel supply risks. Increasingly stable, efficient, and
low-carbon power supply such as nuclear power will help mitigate
these pressures.
Mainland China had 49 operating nuclear power units at the end
of 2020, with total capacity of 51,027.16 MW, which was up 5% from
48,751.16 MW a year earlier, following the commissioning of two
units with a combined capacity of 2,268 MW, according to the China
Nuclear Energy Association (CNEA). Power produced by these units
was 5% higher year on year at 366.24 TWh, similar to power produced
by burning 104.74 mt of 7,000 kc NAR coal. This accounted for 4.94%
of mainland China's total power output, higher than 4.88% in
2019.In addition, the civilian nuclear sector and mastering nuclear
technologies are essential to major markets like mainland China and
India.
Mainland China calls for a 40% increment (70 GW) in nuclear
power in its recent 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-25). Meanwhile,
India's nuclear program entered its third phase, which aims to
utilize its indigenously developed technology and fuel to scale up
the nuclear capacity in the country. India has planned to achieve
27.5 GW of nuclear capacity by 2030.
Pakistan and Bangladesh see nuclear power as a solution to
address the increasing intense energy security problems after
phasing out coal, with more gas imports predicted. Both markets are
highly reliant on gas supply, which saw 43% and 58% in the energy
mix, respectively, as of 2019. Nuclear power may reduce the market
risk of reliance on a single fuel source by diversifying the energy
mix. Pakistan runs five reactors (2,562 MW) and develops KANUPP II
& III (1,100 MW) with help from mainland China.
For long-term development, the government enacted "Nuclear
Energy Vision 2050" in 2015 and seeks to have 44 GW of nuclear
capacity by 2050. The development progress of nuclear projects has
been very slow, and Pakistan will likely miss its target set under
the 2015 vision. Currently, Pakistan has only 2,200 MW of capacity
in the pipeline, which is expected to get commissioned by 2030.
Meanwhile, Bangladesh began construction on its first of two
reactors with Russian assistance in November 2017 and aims for
commercial operation by 2026.
Conservative nuclear power markets in Asia no longer approve
new nuclear plants
Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan used to have nuclear as an
important power source given the lack of natural resources in the
regions. However, with various concerns and anti-nuclear voices
raised in the last decade, the three regions have become
increasingly conservative about nuclear power and are no longer
approving new reactors at present.
Japan is facing a severe challenge in restarting its reactors
post-Fukushima. The Nuclear Regulation Authority (NRA) has mandated
the electric power companies (EPCOs) to implement stringent safety
measures, which effectively shut down all nuclear reactors during
fiscal year (FY) 2014 and slowed the restart of many reactors.
Reactors' restart has been delayed owing to the additional safety
measures, cost, and lengthy review. In 2020, 10 reactors were
approved for operation with a total capacity of 9.96 GW. Nuclear
accounted for 5% of the generation mix, and more are expected to
restart.
On 22nd July 2021, the Japanese government announced a draft
proposal for the power mix to be incorporated in the next Basic
Energy Plan due to be renewed in FY 2022. The announced power mix
included a much stronger share of renewables (36-38% versus 22-24%
in the previous policy), but most notably, a sustained level of
nuclear (unchanged at 20-22% as in the previous policy). With the
ambition to reach net zero by 2050, as well as the newly announced
greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction target of 46% versus 2013 levels,
nuclear is positioned as a stable, non-carbon dioxide emitting
power source that can support renewable growth.
In South Korea, President Moon Jae-in's administration has
announced a nuclear reactor phaseout scheme. The Third Energy
Master Plan in 2019 states that there will be no new reactors
except for those that are currently undergoing construction, and
the existing units' technical life would not be prolonged. The
construction of the half-built Shin-Kori-5 and -6 reactors will
continue and get commissioning in 2022 and 2023, respectively,
alongside Shin-Hanul-1 and -2, which are due to come online in 2021
and 2022.
IHS Markit expects the nuclear generation in the fuel mix to
fall steadily from 29% in 2020 to 22% by 2030 with reactor
retirements. However, this assumption is subjected to the political
environment since the opposition People Power Party is a
pro-nuclear supporter. With the next presidential election
approaching next year and the country facing mounting pressures to
raise the 2030 GHG emissions target before the 26th UN Climate
Change Conference in November 2021, the country's current stance on
nuclear phaseout remains highly uncertain.
Taiwan planned four nuclear power stations in the 1970s. The
reactors were completed in succession during 1978-85, but the
Lungmen Nuclear Power Plant (LNPP, commonly as the Fourth Nuclear
Power Plant) in Gongliao district was mothballed owing to political
reasons and never commissioned. The authority is pledged to achieve
the "Nuclear-free Homeland" target by 2025.
As of July 2021, three out of eight reactors have retired; the
remaining three operating units are approaching their designed
technical lifetime and will not be extended. Nevertheless, the
dispute over the Lungmen station continues. Whether to reboot the
Lungmen plant will be decided in a referendum held in late 2021.
IHS Markit believes it is impractical to restart the station
because the outdated design no longer complies with the latest
safety standards. Retrofitting the nuclear power plant will face
fairly high time and money costs, as well as technical
challenges.
Inactive markets in Asia Pacific: Nuclear power is the last
resort among the Southeast Asians
The rest of the Asia Pacific markets are inactive for nuclear
power. None have commercially operating reactors or intend to build
one.
Australia is the only G20 country where nuclear power
development is prohibited by commonwealth and state legislations.
The Victorian and New South Wales (NSW) governments held separate
inquiries into nuclear power in 2019, suggesting lifting the
nuclear ban for advanced reactors. The conflict arose from the
federal government's unwillingness to repeal nuclear bans, as well
as submissions opposing nuclear power from conservative state
parliaments—South Australia (SA), Tasmania, and Queensland
demonstrating that the governments had no intention of doing so.
However, no firm decision has been made, and until there is a
change, it is unlikely to advance.
The first nuclear power plant in Southeast Asia is the Bataan
Nuclear Power Plant built by the Philippines amid the 1973 oil
crisis and completed construction in 1984. However, affected by the
Three Mile Island accident in 1979 and the Chernobyl accident in
1986, the 621 MW reactor was never commissioned and will not commit
in the future. Malaysia used to review nuclear power as an option
to meet the increasing power demand in the mid- 2010s. The nuclear
power program was abandoned after several deferments by 2018.
There is no nuclear power development in Cambodia at the moment,
but the government is showing interest in developing nuclear
energy. By the end of July 2021, the Cambodian government signed a
memorandum of understanding (MOU) with mainland China and Russia,
aiming to boost cooperation on nuclear energy.
To date, Indonesia, Vietnam, and Thailand have built and
operated several research reactors, but nuclear energy has remained
the last-resort energy source. Apart from the fundamental
unaddressed risks in nuclear power plant operation, the Southeast
Asian region is also threatened by geological
instability—surrounded by the ring of fire (seismic risk). It
makes the region reluctant to include nuclear power in its energy
mix.
Bottom line: Dilemma as a suspense for the nuclear power's
future
Even though it is considered as one of the most reliable and
stable power supplies to substitute the traditional non-renewable
energy sources which release large amount of greenhouse gases,
nuclear power is still struggling at a crossroads for a decade
since the Fukushima accident in 2011. The dispute on massive
deploying or phasing out nuclear has never faded and even attracted
more attention with the world accelerating the process of the
low-carbon transition. The only certain thing with the
uncertainties of nuclear power development is that they will
continue to gain attention and impact the future of nuclear power
in Asia Pacific markets.
Posted 14 December 2021 by Choon Gek Khoo, Research Analyst, Climate and Sustainability, IHS Markit and
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