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One of Nigeria's largest crude oil trade partners, Spain has
been importing more since the massive drop experienced in May
flows, when volumes fell to a ten-year low. Imports surpassed 1.1
million b/d in August but fell to 960,000 b/d in September.
Activity has been strong so far in October, with imports reaching
1.2 million b/d.
Implications
Nigeria has been finalising deals with more trade partners. A
Vietnamese refiner recently purchased Nigerian crude oil for
arrival in 2021, while more cargoes have been shipped to Oceania in
late October.
Outlook
Nigeria's crude oil exports are expected to stand close to 1.7
million b/d in November and December. There are currently 45
million barrels of Nigerian crude oil on the water, carried by 44
tankers. Most of them are heading to Europe, mostly Spain and
France, and India. Most interestingly, four million barrels of
Nigerian crude oil are currently heading to the USA.
...
For the first time after more than a decade, Nigeria is
officially in recession. The local economy, which is heavily
reliant on the country's crude oil exports, has been suffering the
impact the COVID-19 pandemic has had on global oil demand. With oil
prices having collapsed earlier this year and still remaining at
historical low levels, the West African country has not been able
to meet its budget plans. The situation has been rather severe for
Nigeria, which has been selling its crude oil more or less at a
loss so far this year. Nigeria's oil industry, the largest in the
continent, accounts for about half of all government revenue.
Focusing on Nigerian National Petroleum Corp. (NNPC), the
company has been operating joint ventures with oil majors, and is
involved in almost all of Nigeria's crude pumped. Its role also
involves supplying refined fuel to a population of more than 200
million people in the region. The corporation recently stated that
the country's total crude oil and condensate production for 2019
stood at 2.01 million b/d, up 4.8% since 2018.
NNPC has faced high levels of debt in the last couple of years,
but the company has disclosed that it has already paid more than
USD three billion out of about USD 4.6 billion of negotiated joint
venture oil production debt owed to international oil companies.
This means that the outstanding debt now stands close to USD 1.58
billion. Companies that have been paid include Shell Petroleum
Development Company (SPDC), Total Exploration and Production
Nigeria (TEPNG), Mobil Producing Nigeria (MPN), Chevron Nigeria
Limited (CNL) and Nigeria Agip Oil Company (NAOC).
Most of the Nigerian crude oil barrels have been shipped to
destinations across North West Europe such as Spain, Netherland,
France, Italy and Germany. Flows to the continent stood close to
900,000 b/d on average, while around 250,000 b/d have been shipped
to Asian importers, primarily India.
Focusing on Nigeria's largest trade partners, crude oil imports
to Spain have been recovering after the large drop experienced in
May, when they fell to a ten-year low. Volumes imported have
surpassed 1.1 million b/d in August but fell to 960,000 b/d in
September. However, activity has been strong so far in October,
imports are likely to reach 1.2 million b/d by the end of this
month. Nigeria remained Spain's largest crude supplier for a third
consecutive month in August. The West African shipments of crude
oil to Spain stand at 280,000 b/d so far in October.
Elsewhere, Italy's Eni chartered the "Affinity V", an Aframax,
to lift barrels of Nigeria's light sweet Abo to the Baltic in early
November. This will be the first cargo of this grade to be shipped
to the region in the last three years. Spain has been absorbing
most of these barrels in recent months. Most cargoes have been
heading for the Algeciras and Huelva refineries, controlled by
Cepsa.
Among its Asian trade partners, it's interesting that Vietnam's
state-run Binh Son Refinery recently purchased Nigerian crude oil
for arrival in 2021. The deal refers to 7.4 million barrels of
Nigerian Bonny Light for delivery over the first half of next year.
The refiner last purchased Bonny Light in August for delivery in Q4
2020.
Nigeria has been shipping crude oil even to Oceania, with
ExxonMobil considering a cargo to Australia. A Suezmax, the "Mare
Picenum", will load the cargo in late October. ExxonMobil shipped
two more cargoes from Nigeria to its Altona refinery in Melbourne
last month.
Nigerian crude oil exports by grade shipped so far in
2020, in b/d
Nigeria's crude oil exports are expected to stand close to 1.7
million b/d in November and December, with six shipments of Qua
Iboe scheduled for December, of 184,000 b/d in total. Scheduled
loadings of very light sweet Agbami will remain unchanged at
127,000 b/d. Moreover, two cargoes of Erha (total of 61,000 b/d),
one cargo of Usan and another one of Erha are scheduled for
December. Loadings of Escravos, the medium sweet grade, will fall
to 123,000 b/d in December, while shipments of Yoho will increase
to 40,000 b/d.
There are currently 45 million barrels of Nigerian crude oil on
water, carried by 44 tankers. Most of them are heading to Europe,
mostly Spain and France, and India. Most interestingly, four
million barrels of Nigerian crude oil are currently heading to
USA.
Nigerian crude oil currently carried by oil
tankers
