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New South African Finance Minister and pending budget statement

11 October 2018 Brian Lawson Joyce Silungwe Langelihle Malimela Thea Fourie

In the course of this week, South Africa has changed its Finance Minister and faces a potential statement on the domestic-currency risk rating for South Africa, its last investment-grade rating. With expectations of conservative fiscal consolidation and market-friendly policies coupled with the goal of securing additional foreign direct investment and increasing private sector jobs an over-arching question is whether South Africa will be able to revive its growth trajectory, and on what time line.

During this 30-minute discussion our team summarises the current political and economic landscape and the potential near-term implications. Highlighted areas of discussion include:

  • Has there been a fundamental change in the overall political landscape, and what does this imply for policy direction? Could the ANC lose its overall majority, and would that imply policy radicalisation?
  • South African growth has slowed down and has been stuck in low gear. What are the underlying reasons for the country's poor growth performance and do we see scope for improvement in the near-term?
  • The banking sector is well regulated and strongly capitalized but are there potential downside risks with declining credit growth and increased impairment?
  • Given the current economic status, changes in government and recent policy developments, what is our outlook for the South African budget?

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IHS Markit Speakers:

Brian Lawson, Senior Economic and Financial Consultant
Langelihle Malimela, Senior Research Analyst, Sub-Saharan Africa
Thea Fourie, Senior Economist, Sub-Saharan Africa
Joyce Silungwe, Banking Risk Analyst, Sub-Saharan Africa


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