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This release was originally scheduled for December 29, 2019 but
was delayed as a result of the recent lapse in federal funding.
Monthly GDP rose 0.1% in November following a 0.4% increase in
October that was revised up by 0.1 percentage point. In November,
positive contributions from domestic final sales (largely PCE) and
net exports (mainly a decline in imports) were nearly offset by a
large, negative contribution from inventory investment. Monthly GDP
in November was 1.8% above the third-quarter average at an annual
rate. Implicit in our estimate of 2.2% GDP growth in the fourth
quarter is a 0.4% (not annualized) increase of monthly GDP in
December.
Macroeconomic Advisers by IHS Markit's index of Monthly GDP
(MGDP) is a monthly indicator of real aggregate output that is
conceptually consistent with real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in
the National Income and Product Accounts. The Monthly GDP Index is
consistent with the NIPAs for two reasons: first, MGDP is
calculated using much of the same underlying monthly source data
that is used in the calculation of GDP. Second, the method of
aggregation to arrive at MGDP is similar to that for official GDP.
Growth of MGDP at the monthly frequency is determined primarily by
movements in the underlying monthly source data, and growth of MGDP
at the quarterly frequency is nearly identical to growth of real
GDP.
Posted 27 February 2019 by Ben Herzon, Ph.D., Executive Director, Macroeconomic Advisers by IHS Markit and
