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Monthly GDP declined 0.2% in June following large increases over
the prior two months. The decline in June reflected declines in net
exports and inventory investment that were partially offset by a
solid increase in domestic final sales. The latter was mainly
accounted for by growth of PCE and nonresidential fixed investment.
The level of GDP in June was roughly equal to the second-quarter
average. Implicit in our latest forecast of 2.9% GDP growth in the
third quarter are increases in monthly GDP that average 0.3% per
month from July through September.
Macroeconomic
Advisers by IHS Markit's index of Monthly GDP (MGDP) is a
monthly indicator of real aggregate output that is conceptually
consistent with real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the National
Income and Product Accounts. The Monthly GDP Index is consistent
with the NIPAs for two reasons: first, MGDP is calculated using
much of the same underlying monthly source data that is used in the
calculation of GDP. Second, the method of aggregation to arrive at
MGDP is similar to that for official GDP. Growth of MGDP at the
monthly frequency is determined primarily by movements in the
underlying monthly source data, and growth of MGDP at the quarterly
frequency is nearly identical to growth of real GDP.
Posted 27 July 2018 by Ben Herzon, Ph.D., Executive Director, Macroeconomic Advisers by IHS Markit and
