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Monthly GDP Index from Macroeconomic Advisers by IHS Markit for May
Monthly GDP Index rises 0.5% in May 2018
Monthly GDP rose 0.5% in May following a 0.8% increase in April that was revised up by five-tenths. The increase in May was nearly fully accounted for by final sales, as nonfarm inventory investment was nearly unchanged. The increase in final sales, in turn, reflected gains in PCE, nonresidential fixed investment, and net exports. Averaged over April and May, monthly GDP was 4.8% above the first-quarter average at an annual rate. Implicit in our latest tracking forecast of 5.3% GDP growth in Q2 is a 0.1% increase in monthly GDP in June.
Macroeconomic Advisers by IHS Markit's index of Monthly GDP (MGDP) is a monthly indicator of real aggregate output that is conceptually consistent with real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the National Income and Product Accounts. The Monthly GDP Index is consistent with the NIPAs for two reasons: first, MGDP is calculated using much of the same underlying monthly source data that is used in the calculation of GDP. Second, the method of aggregation to arrive at MGDP is similar to that for official GDP. Growth of MGDP at the monthly frequency is determined primarily by movements in the underlying monthly source data, and growth of MGDP at the quarterly frequency is nearly identical to growth of real GDP.
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