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Monthly GDP rose 0.4% in July following a flat reading in June
that was revised up from a previously reported 0.2% decline. The
increase in July was more than accounted for by a jump in nonfarm
inventory-building. Final sales to domestic purchasers were
essentially flat in July, as solid growth of PCE was offset by a
sharp decline in fixed investment in aircraft. The level of GDP in
July was 2.5% above the second-quarter average at an annual rate.
Implicit in our forecast of 3.1% GDP growth in the third quarter
are increases in August and September that average 0.2% per month
(not annualized).
Macroeconomic
Advisers by IHS Markit's index of Monthly GDP (MGDP) is a
monthly indicator of real aggregate output that is conceptually
consistent with real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the National
Income and Product Accounts. The Monthly GDP Index is consistent
with the NIPAs for two reasons: first, MGDP is calculated using
much of the same underlying monthly source data that is used in the
calculation of GDP. Second, the method of aggregation to arrive at
MGDP is similar to that for official GDP. Growth of MGDP at the
monthly frequency is determined primarily by movements in the
underlying monthly source data, and growth of MGDP at the quarterly
frequency is nearly identical to growth of real GDP.
Posted 28 August 2018 by Ben Herzon, Ph.D., Executive Director, Macroeconomic Advisers by IHS Markit and
