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Monthly GDP rose 0.2% in October following a robust, 0.6%
increase in September that was revised higher by 0.3 percentage
point. The October increase was fully accounted for by net exports;
a moderate increase in domestic final sales in October was
essentially offset by a small decline in nonfarm inventory
investment. The level of GDP in October was 2.0% above the
third-quarter average at an annual rate. Implicit in our forecast
of 1.9% GDP growth in the fourth quarter is a small decline in GDP
in November followed by resumed growth in December.
Macroeconomic Advisers by IHS Markit's index of Monthly GDP
(MGDP) is a monthly indicator of real aggregate output that is
conceptually consistent with real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in
the National Income and Product Accounts. The Monthly GDP Index is
consistent with the NIPAs for two reasons: first, MGDP is
calculated using much of the same underlying monthly source data
that is used in the calculation of GDP. Second, the method of
aggregation to arrive at MGDP is similar to that for official GDP.
Growth of MGDP at the monthly frequency is determined primarily by
movements in the underlying monthly source data, and growth of MGDP
at the quarterly frequency is nearly identical to growth of real
GDP.
Posted 27 November 2019 by Ben Herzon, Ph.D., Executive Director, Macroeconomic Advisers by IHS Markit and
