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Monthly GDP Index from Macroeconomic Advisers by IHS Markit for July

Monthly GDP rose 0.4% in July following a 0.1% increase in June that was revised lower by 0.2 percentage point. The increase in July was mainly accounted for by increases in net exports and nonfarm inventory investment. Domestic final sales were little changed, reflecting a robust increase in personal consumption expenditures that was nearly offset by a decline in nonresidential fixed investment. The level of GDP in July was 2.1% above the second-quarter average at an annual rate. Implicit in our forecast of 2.2% GDP growth in the third quarter is a small decline in GDP in August followed by a return to moderate growth in September.

Macroeconomic Advisers by IHS Markit's index of Monthly GDP (MGDP) is a monthly indicator of real aggregate output that is conceptually consistent with real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the National Income and Product Accounts. The Monthly GDP Index is consistent with the NIPAs for two reasons: first, MGDP is calculated using much of the same underlying monthly source data that is used in the calculation of GDP. Second, the method of aggregation to arrive at MGDP is similar to that for official GDP. Growth of MGDP at the monthly frequency is determined primarily by movements in the underlying monthly source data, and growth of MGDP at the quarterly frequency is nearly identical to growth of real GDP.

Posted 29 August 2019 by Ben Herzon, Ph.D., Executive Director, Macroeconomic Advisers by IHS Markit and

Kathleen Navin, CBE, Director, Macroeconomic Advisers by IHS Markit

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