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Monthly GDP Index from Macroeconomic Advisers by IHS Markit for January

This release was originally scheduled for February 28, 2019 but was delayed as a result of a lapse in federal funding.

Monthly GDP Index Rose 0.7% in January 2019

Monthly GDP rose 0.7% in January following a 0.4% increase in December that was revised higher by 0.2 percentage point. More than half of the January increase was accounted for by net exports, while an increase in nonfarm inventory investment also contributed to the gain.

The level of GDP in January was 3.8% above the fourth-quarter average at an annual rate, implying robust statistical momentum for the first quarter. However, the level of real nonfarm inventory investment was quite elevated in January, and net exports are quite volatile; we assume declines for both in February, undercutting January's statistical momentum.

Macroeconomic Advisers by IHS Markit's index of Monthly GDP (MGDP) is a monthly indicator of real aggregate output that is conceptually consistent with real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the National Income and Product Accounts. The Monthly GDP Index is consistent with the NIPAs for two reasons: first, MGDP is calculated using much of the same underlying monthly source data that is used in the calculation of GDP. Second, the method of aggregation to arrive at MGDP is similar to that for official GDP. Growth of MGDP at the monthly frequency is determined primarily by movements in the underlying monthly source data, and growth of MGDP at the quarterly frequency is nearly identical to growth of real GDP.

Posted 02 April 2019 by Ben Herzon, Ph.D., Executive Director, Macroeconomic Advisers by IHS Markit and

Kathleen Navin, CBE, Director, Macroeconomic Advisers by IHS Markit

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