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Monthly GDP rose 0.2% in April following a flat reading in March
that was revised lower from a previously reported 0.1% increase.
The increase in April was more than accounted for by an increase in
nonfarm inventory investment; domestic final sales and net exports
both declined, with nonresidential fixed investment leading the
decline in domestic final sales. The level of GDP in April was
roughly equal to the first-quarter average. Implicit in our
forecast of 1.5% GDP growth in the second quarter are increases
that average about 0.3% per month over May and June.
Macroeconomic Advisers by IHS Markit's index of Monthly
GDP (MGDP) is a monthly indicator of real aggregate output that
is conceptually consistent with real Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
in the National Income and Product Accounts. The Monthly GDP Index
is consistent with the NIPAs for two reasons: first, MGDP is
calculated using much of the same underlying monthly source data
that is used in the calculation of GDP. Second, the method of
aggregation to arrive at MGDP is similar to that for official GDP.
Growth of MGDP at the monthly frequency is determined primarily by
movements in the underlying monthly source data, and growth of MGDP
at the quarterly frequency is nearly identical to growth of real
GDP.
Posted 30 May 2019 by Ben Herzon, Ph.D., Executive Director, Macroeconomic Advisers by IHS Markit and
