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Monthly GDP Index from Macroeconomic Advisers by IHS Markit for August

Monthly GDP Index flat in August 2018

Monthly GDP was essentially flat in August following a 0.5% increase in July. The roughly flat reading in August reflected solid growth of domestic final sales that was offset by declines in net exports and nonfarm inventory investment. Contributing to growth of domestic final sales in August were gains in personal consumption expenditures and nonresidential fixed investment. Averaged over July and August, monthly GDP was 3.2% above the second-quarter average at an annual rate. Implicit in our latest forecast of 3.2% GDP growth in the third quarter is a 0.1% increase (not annualized) in monthly GDP in September.

Macroeconomic Advisers by IHS Markit's index of Monthly GDP (MGDP) is a monthly indicator of real aggregate output that is conceptually consistent with real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the National Income and Product Accounts. The Monthly GDP Index is consistent with the NIPAs for two reasons: first, MGDP is calculated using much of the same underlying monthly source data that is used in the calculation of GDP. Second, the method of aggregation to arrive at MGDP is similar to that for official GDP. Growth of MGDP at the monthly frequency is determined primarily by movements in the underlying monthly source data, and growth of MGDP at the quarterly frequency is nearly identical to growth of real GDP.

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