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With 50% of countries reporting, month of May numbers indicate a solid rebound for global auto demand
09 June 2020
With Global Auto Demand for May-2020 now more than 50%
actualised/early estimates, we are seeing evidence of a solid
rebound from April's extreme lows.
In the United States, light-vehicle sales estimates for May
show a drop in demand in the region of 30% year on year (y/y) in
May, as demand improved from the depressed level in April, as
incentives, online sales, and reopening of activities - especially
at auto dealerships - supported sales.
The pace of decline is easing and if we use China as an example
of a market that is around six weeks ahead of many nations in the
cycle, there are indications of a tenuous recovery.
Europe again reported a sharp contraction in its key markets,
with West Europe as a whole down around 57% y/y, but this was a
substantially smaller drop than in April as the gradual lifting of
restrictions led to increased activity. Indeed, volumes improved
98% from April when nearly all markets were effectively closed, and
this underlines the fact that April represented the bottom of the
trough for many nations.
Volumes in France, Italy, and Germany all fell by around 50%
y/y in May, but this was a considerable improvement compared to
April, when these markets contracted by 89% y/y (France), 95% y/y
(Italy) and 61% y/y (Germany) respectively.
The UK was again one of the hardest hit, down 89% y/y in May,
although again this is better than the 97% drop reported in April.
Vehicle showrooms are expected to begin to open up from
mid-June.
The Global Auto Demand Tracker is updated daily with sales
and/or registrations by country by make for the most recent
calendar month. Where an actual date is not yet publicly available,
the IHS Markit Sales Operations prediction for the month is
provided.
The Global Auto Demand Tracker allows automakers and their
national sales arms to see which markets are sliding into crisis,
which are emerging, and at the pace of the recovery. It also shows
which brands are being hit the hardest in terms of volume and
market share.
To support our clients, IHS Markit is making the Global Auto
Demand Tracker available to all clients with access to Connect, our
client portal, for the months of May and June. If you are not a
subscriber to Connect, fill out the registration form here and request a free trial to Connect.
