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On 24 February 2019, Moldova held a parliamentary election to
select its 101 MPs, which produced a hung parliament.
Turnout was registered at 49.22%, versus 55.85% in the previous
election in November 2014. The election was held using a parallel
voting system that was introduced in 2017, with 50 MPs elected by
proportional representation in a single nationwide constituency,
and the other 51 elected in single-member constituencies. In the
proportional representation vote, the pro-Russian opposition
Socialist party (Partidul Socialiştilor din Republica Moldova,
PSRM) of President Igor Dodon received 31.2% of the vote, pro-EU
and anti-corruption opposition ACUM bloc received 26.8%, the
incumbent and nominally pro-Western Democratic party (Partidul
Democrat din Moldova, PDM) received 23.6%, and the Sor party, led
by businessman Ilan Sor received 8.3%. The other 11 parties failed
to reach the 5% threshold. With those MPs elected in individual
constituencies, the PSRM won a total of 34 seats, the ACUM bloc 27,
the PDM 30, Sor party seven, and independents won three seats (see
chart) in the 101-strong parliament.
The election has produced a highly fragmented parliament with no
party having a simple majority. This will complicate government
formation, as forecast. Although the pro-Russian PSRM has the
highest number of MPs in the new parliament, it is unlikely to be
able to form an administration on its own as both the pro-EU ACUM
bloc and the previously ruling nominally pro-Western PDM party
would oppose such a move. PSRM's inability to form a government by
itself makes any policy overhaul and reorientation towards Russia,
and away from the EU, unlikely.
ACUM, which campaigned on the platform for closer links to the
EU and against the alleged corruption in the previous PDM-led
government, is unlikely to join coalitions with either PSRM or PDM.
Before the election, all ACUM candidates signed a collective
agreement to avoid entering into any coalition proposed by these
two parties. PDM would be likely to negotiate with the Sor party
(which lacks a strong ideological platform) and the three
independent MPs to establish a broader coalition, but this would
give them only 40 votes, versus a required parliamentary majority
of 51. PDM would potentially attempt to engineer defections of MPs
from PSRM or ACUM bloc by promising them positions of power in the
cabinet to gain a parliamentary majority but we assess that such
switching is less likely now than in the past. If PDM manages to
establish a cabinet, it would be likely to retain the current set
of policies. This includes a general orientation towards the EU,
however lack of anti-corruption drive which have led to accusation
by the opposition of the PDM attempting to establish a "captured
state" situation.
On 25 February President Dodon announced plans to dissolve
parliament and hold a new parliamentary ballot if the parliamentary
parties fail to agree on a coalition. His opposition PSRM party
also demanded that elections be repeated in at least six
constituencies, including two in Transdniestria, which could
produce a different allocation of seats if accepted. If a second
national parliamentary election were held in the three-month
outlook, it would be likely to produce a different outcome.
Alongside the election, Moldova held a consultative referendum, in
which the majority of respondents voted to reduce the number of MPs
from 101 to 61 and dismiss those incapable of performing their
official duties. A reduction in the number of constituencies in the
next election would likely favor the larger parties, and probably
would eliminate the three independents.
Delays to government formation and accusations of voting
irregularities in the latest election have the potential to
mobilize protesters to engage in large-scale and potentially
violent demonstrations, which would force politicians to decide on
a repeat election. Also, the delays and a potential repeat vote
would establish policy gridlock in Moldova for the next three to
six months. This would further delay implementation of EU-mandated
reforms and any negotiations with the IMF and other international
institutions.
Indicators of changing risk environment
Increasing risk
Court rulings demanding election reruns in specific
constituencies.
Inability of either party to form a new administration in the
next three months.
Large-scale and potentially violent protests in the capital
Chisinau demanding new elections.
Decreasing risk
Ability of PDM to establish a new ruling coalition with the
smaller Sor party, independents and defectors from PSRM or
ACUM.
Inability of ACUM or PSRM to mobilize significant protests
challenging such minority cabinet formation.
Posted 28 February 2019 by Alex Kokcharov, Principal Analyst, Europe & CIS Country Risk