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Russia's invasion of Ukraine on 24 February has precipitated
very sizeable refugee movements in Central and Eastern Europe. It
has highlighted how traditional drivers, including conflicts and
major economic shocks, remain a central factor behind
migration.
The lifting of travel restrictions in West Africa after the
coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic will generate
increased irregular labor migration towards Europe in 2022. Food
and energy prices and higher international borrowing costs are
putting adverse pressure on local living conditions. Earning
potential encourages labor flows into net recipient industrialized
countries, especially from West African countries dependent on
remittances.
The EU is likely to continue reinforcing existing partnerships
with African countries to fight people smuggling and curb irregular
migration flows. EU and individual European countries will probably
gradually expand programs for legal migration from African
countries over the next two to five years. This is indicated by the
Asylum, Migration and Integration Fund (AMIF) having a budget of
EUR9.9 billion for 2021-27 to support legal migration from outside
the EU. This approach is likely to provide a framework for the
partial regulation of migration inflows to Europe.
The EU refugee resettlement framework is likely to continue to
operate on a voluntary basis in the two-year outlook. This implies
continued pressure on refugee centers in the countries of first
entry in Europe such as Italy, Spain, and Malta, and encourages
illegal migrant crossings further into Western Europe. A major
point of contention is likely to be an agreement between the EU -
particularly its member state France - and the UK on policies
tackling the issue of irregular migration via the La Manche/English
Channel against the background of the new post-Brexit rules and the
ongoing lack of common migration policy among EU member states.
This indicates the likelihood of continuing delays to cargo at and
around ports (Dover in the UK and Calais and Dunkirk in France) due
to the occasional presence of stranded migrants, anti-migrant
protests, and enhanced security checks, particularly if migrants
are found hiding in containers.
Irregular migration is likely to continue to feed into both
formal and informal employment in the EU. The EU AMIF was designed
to fund labor-market integration programs. The implementation of
efforts to increase formal employment is likely to generate
sectoral and regional disparities across Italy, Spain, and France.
For instance, in May 2020, Italy introduced a regularization
program for undocumented migrants in the agriculture and care and
domestic work sectors. Results have been underwhelming, with only
around 38,000 residence permits issued by October 2021 versus about
230,000 applications, owing to complicated procedures. Sectors such
as construction and tourism have been left out of the program
altogether.
Our banking risk experts provide insight into events impacting the financial sector in emerging markets in May incl… https://t.co/B6GVa7n1ox
May 10
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