Market Briefing: Bulgaria
Bulgaria is applying to join the ERM, the precursor to full-scale Eurozone entry, in mid-2019, with the potential fallback date of early 2020. This implies it could form part of the Eurozone from 2022. It does so having maintained a stable currency peg, firstly against the Deutschemark and subsequently the Euro, for the last two decades including through the 2008 financial crisis and subsequent Eurozone dislocations.
In a 30-minute briefing IHS Markit experts from our economics, country risk and banking risk teams assess opportunities in Bulgaria and the associated risk environment. This includes review of:
- Bulgaria's ability to attract foreign investment, its international openness, and its position within global supply chains
- Key impacts of its long-established currency board on its fiscal and external balances, and the strength of its Eurozone credentials
- Remaining economic challenges, such as adverse demographics
- Bulgaria's ability to satisfy EU criteria for ERM and eventual Euro-zone entry
- Political and policy stability, and the key risk issue of fighting corruption
- Current weaknesses in banking supervision and the path towards improved regulation
- Popular domestic views of the EU and use of the Euro.
IHS Markit Speakers
Senior Economic and Financial Consultant
Senior Research Analyst
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