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In a 30-minute briefing IHS Markit experts from our Economics,
Country Risk and Banking Risk teams consider political, economic
and capital market indicators and developments for the three
largest economies in Latin America. In all three, political factors
represent the key driver for potential economic and capital market
performance. Key areas of discussion by country include:
In Argentina, financial markets have been
particularly sensitive to the prospect of a return to office for
Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, under whose administration
Argentina experienced sovereign default, and with fears that she
would fail to follow IMF policy recommendations. However, we assess
that there are several diverse scenarios for the upcoming
presidential elections in 2019, albeit with a challenging economic
background.
In Brazil, there is growing uncertainty over
President Bolsonaro´s ability to progress key legislation,
particularly pension reform and planned privatizations needed to
control the country´s excessively large budget deficits, in a
complex and fractured political landscape.
In Mexico, President Lopez Obrador has so far
avoided radical policy change, but market optimism faces a growing
challenge from increased uncertainty over policy direction, and the
potential introduction of greater economic nationalism.
