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Market Briefing: Argentina, Brazil and Mexico under political pressure

In a 30-minute briefing IHS Markit experts from our Economics, Country Risk and Banking Risk teams consider political, economic and capital market indicators and developments for the three largest economies in Latin America. In all three, political factors represent the key driver for potential economic and capital market performance. Key areas of discussion by country include:

  • In Argentina, financial markets have been particularly sensitive to the prospect of a return to office for Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, under whose administration Argentina experienced sovereign default, and with fears that she would fail to follow IMF policy recommendations. However, we assess that there are several diverse scenarios for the upcoming presidential elections in 2019, albeit with a challenging economic background.
  • In Brazil, there is growing uncertainty over President Bolsonaro´s ability to progress key legislation, particularly pension reform and planned privatizations needed to control the country´s excessively large budget deficits, in a complex and fractured political landscape.
  • In Mexico, President Lopez Obrador has so far avoided radical policy change, but market optimism faces a growing challenge from increased uncertainty over policy direction, and the potential introduction of greater economic nationalism.

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IHS Markit Speakers

  • Brian Lawson, Senior Economic and Financial Consultant
  • Rafael Amiel, Economics Director
  • Carlos Caicedo, Research and Analysis Associate Director

Posted 17 May 2019 by Brian Lawson, Senior Economic and Financial Consultant, Country Risk, IHS Markit and

Carlos Caicedo, Senior Principal Analyst, Country Risk – Americas, IHS Markit and

Rafael Amiel, Ph.D., Director – Latin America & Caribbean Economics, IHS Markit

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