Maritime & Trade Research and Analysis

1. A better Q3 and clear optimism in most markets with growing concerns and uncertainty over the second wave of COVID-19

   20 October 2020 Tomasz Brodzicki, Ph.D.

   China is the only top economy showing clear and consistent signs of recovery in Q2 and Q3 2020 - Chinese exports were higher by 0.3% in June...

   

2. Grain trade has supported Panamax freight rates but coal risk still remains

   19 October 2020 Daejin Lee

   Panamax average earning has been supported by a strong grain demand this year, despite the COVID-19 pandemic and limited coal trade. Chinese...

   

3. E-Commerce Facilitation Measures Stimulating Cosmetics Trade

   14 October 2020 Yingzhi Zhang

   E-Commerce has experienced rapid growth in recent years. Cosmetics is among the fastest growing consumer products.

   

4. Amid Global Volatility, Marine Insurers Are Prioritizing Data Management

   09 October 2020 Jamie Penniman

   The COVID-19 pandemic and explosion in Beirut have underscored the need for marine insurers to develop better ways to understand their risk exposure...

   

5. Norway’s crude oil exports down to 1.2 million b/d in September

   07 October 2020 Fotios Katsoulas

   Norway's crude oil exports dropped to 1.2 million b/d in September, down from 1.48 million b/d in August. An escalating workers' strike since...

   

6. Atlantic Capesize freight rates spiked again with a limited number of ballasters to the west

   06 October 2020 Daejin Lee

   At the start of October, Capesize (180,000 dwt) timecharter rates increased to about USD30,000/day from USD15,000/day from just two weeks ago....

   

7. Charting the COVID Pandemic Effects on International Trade: October 2020

   01 October 2020 Mike Wiman

   For the first 34 weeks of the year, Mexico increased import MTONs from the US by 1.2% year-on-year 2019 to 2020 but decreased import value by...

   

8. OPEC+ September seaborne exports edge up even as overproduction is checked, non-alliance shipments fall to year low

   01 October 2020 Raj Rajendran Fotios Katsoulas

   Seaborne crude oil shipments by the OPEC+ group rose in September without busting the agreed ceiling as some members looked to the export market...

   

9. African Swine Fever Implications for Pork Trade

   30 September 2020 Alice Gladen

   China's importance as a trade partner for German pork was clear in 2019 when the volume of German exports to China increased by 81% compared...

   

10. New IHS Markit global trade forecasts the most challenging year on record

    25 September 2020 Tomasz Brodzicki, Ph.D.

    According to the new release of the IHS Markit GTA Forecasting model global merchandise trade is likely to go down in 2020 to USD 16,672 billion...

    

11. US crude oil exports down in September but more heading to China

    24 September 2020 Fotios Katsoulas

    So far in September, more than 700,000 b/d have been shipped from US ports to China, with estimates that volumes could even surpass 800,000 b/d...

    

12. Changes in trade routes and consumption for jet fuel

    22 September 2020 Fotios Katsoulas

    The UAE, Saudi Arabia and India have dominated jet fuel flows to Europe, accounting for almost half of the volumes shipped to Europe. The seasonality...

    

13. Crude oil shipments to Asia down further in September

    18 September 2020 Fotios Katsoulas

    According to IHS Markit Commodities at Sea, crude oil shipments to China dropped to 7.6 million b/d so far in the first half of September, compared...

    

14. Another headache for OPEC

    16 September 2020 Fotios Katsoulas

    OPEC has revised down its forecast for global oil demand by another 400,000 b/d this year. The cartel now expects consumption to decline by 9.5...

    

15. Total United States grain exports to China lower year-on-year, but there is a silver lining

    15 September 2020 Dalibor Gogic

    Year-on-year, for the first eight months of this year total major grain exports to China including soybeans is lower by about 14%.

    

16. At last, some hope for VLCCs

    14 September 2020 Fotios Katsoulas

    Rates jumped to more than USD 24,000 per day on 11th September once first rumours started to spread around a potential second wave of interest...

    

17. Charting the COVID Pandemic Effects on International Trade: September 2020

    07 September 2020 Mike Wiman

    Mexico usually carries a trade surplus with the US, exporting more than it imports from its northern neighbor. For the first 30 weeks of the...

    

18. Top 10 economies: Q2 2020 the worst quarter on record in trade with first signs of a sustained but very gradual upturn

    07 September 2020 Tomasz Brodzicki, Ph.D.

    The trend in the PMI is clear and consistent within Q2 of 2020 showing a gradual improvement in market confidence from May onwards and continuing...

    

19. New grain seasonality signals higher rates in the short-term while risk remains in the fourth quarter

    07 September 2020 Daejin Lee

    Once the surge in pent-up demand is satisfied and the boost to apparent consumption from inventory restocking is complete, growth may fade, exposing...

    

20. The Wolfsberg Group – Developing an Effective AML/CTF Programme

    04 September 2020

    As of August 2020, Wolfsberg Group has released a statement encouraging authorities to adopt the FATF guidelines in accordance to mitigating...

    

21. US Department of State Advisory on DPRK Ballistic Missile Procurement

    03 September 2020 Byron McKinney

    A joint advisory document has been released by three US government departments regarding North Korea’s ballistic missile procurement activity....

    

22. Post-Brexit Tariff Change for British Imports from China

    03 September 2020 Yingzhi Zhang

    China is UK's third largest import trade partner in recent years holding steady at 9% market share. While trade talks around 'Brexit' mostly...

    

23. Maritime Compliance Guide 2020 shines light on scrubber, ballast-water management markets

    03 September 2020 Ines Nastali

    Fewer scrubbers and ballast water management systems (BWMS) will be installed in 2020 due to COVID-19, according to this year’s Maritime Compliance...

    

24. Brazil Exports 1.5 million b/d of Crude Oil so far in August

    24 August 2020 Fotios Katsoulas

    Brazilian Crude Oil Exports remain strong so far in August, with volumes only marginally down since last month. The country has been loading...

    

25. Update: The current situation in the port of Beirut, Lebanon

    18 August 2020 Jeremy Domballe

    With more than 60% of arrivals occuring within the port of Beirut, the port is a vital infrastructure supporting Lebanon economic activity.

    

26. Russia exporting less crude oil to Europe, but probably not for long

    18 August 2020 Fotios Katsoulas

    Russia is now increasing its crude oil and condensate output, but seaborne exports remained unchanged in first half of August. Production has...

    

27. Trade Outlook in the Chemicals Industry

    17 August 2020 Alice Gladen

    The value of trade in organic chemicals reached $846 Billion in 2019 however, this was down by around 10% from 2018 values. 2019 was a tumultuous...

    

28. The anatomy of the great trade collapse of 2020

    17 August 2020 Tomasz Brodzicki, Ph.D.

    The value of global exports in the first four months of 2020 reported by the analyzed states amounted to five billion US dollars. It represents...

    

29. Recovery started for Japanese crude oil imports

    13 August 2020 Fotios Katsoulas

    Japan crude oil imports increased by 13.6% in July month-on-month but remained around 29% lower than a year ago. The country's appetite for crude...

    

30. Norwegian crude oil exports set to decline in September

    06 August 2020 Fotios Katsoulas

    North Sea’s total crude oil loadings activity is expected to hit this year’s record low in September. Most recent loading schedules suggest exports...

    

31. Charting the COVID pandemic effects on international trade

    05 August 2020 Mike Wiman

    US-Mexico cross-border trade via Mexico customs bill of lading data.

    

32. COVID-19 impact on trade in the United States of America

    05 August 2020 Alice Gladen

    Using vessel port callings data combined with trade data to analyse the US response to COVID on a state level.

    

33. Massive jump in Indian crude oil imports after June’s record lowest levels

    05 August 2020 Fotios Katsoulas

    India imported 5.14 million b/d of crude oil in July, up 82% month-on-month and 23% up year-on-year.

    

34. The worst quarter in trade on record, signs of a weak recovery in China and a positive trend in PMI new export orders readouts for all top economies

    05 August 2020 Tomasz Brodzicki, Ph.D.

    China mainland is the only top economy showing signs of recovery in Q2 2020 both in exports and imports

    

35. OPEC seaborne shipments edged up to 19.1 million b/d in July, while Russia has a tight grip on cuts

    04 August 2020 Raj Rajendran Fotios Katsoulas

    Seaborne crude oil exports by OPEC members rose in July as Gulf nations such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait were no longer held back by...

    

36. Can the sub-Panamax sector recover as strongly as Capesizes?

    04 August 2020 Daejin Lee

    The current dry bulk market is Capesize-driven market. We have seen C5TC has increased to more than USD 30,000 per day in early July 2020 from...

    

37. GTA Research Paper: Case Study of Commodity Trading for Financials

    24 July 2020 Jeremy Domballe

    A research addressing the use case and role of statistical trade data in commodity trading.

    

38. OPEC shipped 19.5 million barrels per day so far in July

    21 July 2020 Fotios Katsoulas

    OPEC together with other members of the Vienna Alliance decided that current production cuts of 9.7 million barrels per day (b/d) will remain...

    

39. IHS Markit maritime data uncovers the effects of US sanctions on Venezuela’s oil tanker activity

    16 July 2020 Byron McKinney

    In the C4ADS report, IHS Markit’s role as the issuer of the IMO number for vessels and originating source for the IMO Unique Company and Registered...

    

40. Monthly trade monitor for the top 10 economies in the world - July 2020

    15 July 2020 Tomasz Brodzicki, Ph.D.

    The Western hemisphere countries (EU, the UK, the US, and Canada) seem at this stage to be more adversely affected than other economies, however...

    

41. Tracking trade in COVID-19 medical supplies

    07 July 2020 John Mathai

    International trade in crucial COVID related medical supplies touched $188 billion during 1Q20, registering a growth of 12% over the same period...

    

42. Charting COVID-19 Pandemic Effects on International Trade

    02 July 2020 Mike Wiman

    Mexico didn’t impose large-scale quarantines until the last week of March, and the containerized export volume declines (measured in 20-foot...

    

43. Maritime trade and its risks: EU's imports from Asia and the Middle East

    02 July 2020 Jeremy Domballe

    The EU imports from an average of 211 unique Non-EU Trade partners each year – representing a 22% increase in value of goods and 227 Billion...

    

44. Global exports in aerospace products and parts before and during the COVID-19 pandemics

    02 July 2020 Tomasz Brodzicki, Ph.D.

    In Q1 2020 the value of global exports of aerospace products and parts fell to USD 75,854 billion which represents a fall of 8.0% year-on-year...

    

45. USA exporting more crude oil to Asia, but flows to Europe could strengthen in Q3

    01 July 2020 Fotios Katsoulas

    The United States is expected to play a significant role in the recovery of oil prices over the coming months, with their crude oil output falling...

    

46. Monthly trade monitor for the world's top 10 economies - June 2020

    19 June 2020 Tomasz Brodzicki, Ph.D.

    April 2020 brought about a massive collapse in the value of exports (year-on-year) with exports falling by 19.1% in Japan and by 25.1% in South...

    

47. Large increase in crude oil flows from USA to China while Korean imports fell sharply

    17 June 2020 Fotios Katsoulas

    China's imports of US crude oil are expected to hit record-high levels in July with cargoes shipped in May having surpassed 550,000 b/d.

    

48. Difficult for Iraq to restrict crude oil exports to only 2.8 million b/d in June

    16 June 2020 Fotios Katsoulas

    Iraq is expected to export around 2.8 million b/d of crude oil in June, as the country is determined to commit to the OPEC+ production cuts deal...

    

49. Tracking Vessel Activity at Key Ports throughout COVID-19

    16 June 2020 Alice Gladen

    The impact on the shipping industry has been widespread, whether that is the complete freezing of the cruise ship industry, the implications...

    

50. Export hub status of Hong Kong endangered by the US-China trade war?

    10 June 2020 Tomasz Brodzicki, Ph.D. Katarzyna Skrzypek

    It is important to stress that China mainland is a significantly more important trade partner of Hong Kong SAR than the US.

    

51. Mexico not extending oil output cuts agreed by OPEC+

    09 June 2020 Fotios Katsoulas

    Production of Mexico's state-owned Pemex only reached 1.53 million b/d in May, around 123,000 b/d lower than the 100,000 b/d cut agreed at the...

    

52. Russian crude oil exports down while Libya could start recovering

    08 June 2020 Fotios Katsoulas

    Russian seaborne exports of crude oil marginally fell below four million b/d in May, with volumes coming down 15% month-on-month and 21% year-on-year....

    

53. Seafarer fatalities shows shipping must do more

    28 May 2020

    Behind every casualty and vessel total loss statistic are seafarers that have lost their lives, been injured, or suffer long-term physical or...

    

54. IHS Markit gains UK Women in Maritime Charter Certification

    26 May 2020 Ashlee Williams

    Maritime UK, the industry body for the maritime sector, has announced IHS Markit as the seventh company to gain Charter certification as part...

    

55. Trade in 2020 - the initial results and possible scenarios forward

    22 May 2020 Tomasz Brodzicki, Ph.D.

    World merchandise trade is expected to fall in real value by 13.6% in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

    

56. China's strong appetite for Brazilian grades in late April

    19 May 2020 Fotios Katsoulas

    China’s appetite for Brazilian barrels has remained strong over the last couple of months, but most recent data by IHS Markit Commodities at...

    

57. Iraq under pressure due to OPEC+ production cuts

    15 May 2020 Fotios Katsoulas

    Shipments from OPEC members are already significantly down in the first half of May compared to last month. Total volumes exported from the 13...

    

58. Impact of COVID-19 on EUs Cereal Supply Chain

    14 May 2020 Jeremy Domballe

    Grains and cereals have become an increasingly important commodity used in everyday life, from being grounded into flour for baking to simply...

    

59. Charting the COVID-19 Pandemic Effects on International Trade

    14 May 2020 Mike Wiman

    Looking at containerized trade by 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs), total Mexico exports to the US were relatively flat, declining just 0.9% the...

    

60. Trade in pharmaceuticals and medical goods in 2019 and COVID-19 implications for 2020

    08 May 2020 Katarzyna Skrzypek

    The situation and prospects for 2020

    

61. The impact of COVID-19 on the UK fishing industry

    04 May 2020 Alice Gladen

    As COVID-19 continues to have an impact and lockdown continues throughout the world, the UK fishing industry appears to be struggling. The Marine...

    

62. US Retail Sales vs Container Shipping - Exploring the Relationship

    30 April 2020 Jeremy Domballe

    IHS Markit US Bill of Lading data is ingested daily, containing invaluable insights into market evolution. The tagging of containerised goods...

    

63. Regulatory onslaught on the horizon for the maritime industry

    30 April 2020 Guy Sear

    The shipping industry has been thrown into chaos by an unprecedented increase in sanctions.

    

64. China's Exports of Pharmaceuticals, Medical Equipment and Chemicals

    29 April 2020 Jeremy Domballe

    The US is the number one partner of pharmaceutical and medical equipment/chemical from China representing 18.07% of total Chinese exports.

    

65. Do you want to quickly track LR2 and LR1 switching between clean and dirty markets?

    28 April 2020 Fotios Katsoulas

    Most recent data by IHS Markit Commodities at Sea suggests that utilisation rates for LR2 have improved, while those for LR1 have actually declined....

    

66. Latest UN Annual Report on DPRK Sanctions

    24 April 2020 Byron McKinney

    The release of the United Nations North Korea Panel of Experts report for March 2020 outlines the main areas of activity deployed by the Democratic...

    

67. The key causes of ship total losses

    23 April 2020

    The maritime industry has seen a decrease in total losses of ships over the past five years, attributed by many in the industry to increased...

    

68. Tankers experiencing high congestion in North Western Europe

    22 April 2020 Fotios Katsoulas

    Several tankers heading for destinations across Europe have been facing huge delays due to high congestion during the last couple of weeks, with...

    

69. Floating Storage: How much of the oil supply surplus can be stored by tankers?

    17 April 2020 Krispen Atkinson Karim Fawaz Fotios Katsoulas

    The last major period of global oil oversupply was 2014–16, during which global inventories built up by about 1.1 billion bbls, or an average...

    

70. Cruise vessels forecast and COVID-19 impact on the industry

    16 April 2020 Dalibor Gogic

    The majority of cruise operators have ceased operations amid the coronavirus outbreak, and our AIS data suggests that a large number of vessels...

    

71. COVID-19: China export contraction for the first two months of 2020

    14 April 2020 Tomasz Brodzicki, Ph.D.

    Chinese exports went down by USD 71,342 million to USD 281.4 billion. It represents a fall of 20.2% in comparison to 2019.

    

72. US truck shippers capitalizing on HOS relief

    09 April 2020 Bill Cassidy

    As truck drivers rush to deliver essential goods during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, US shippers are taking advantage of...

    

73. State of Maritime Safety report launched today

    08 April 2020

    State of Maritime Safety report launched today

    

74. More Saudi Arabian crude oil exports for April, as promised

    06 April 2020 Fotios Katsoulas

    Saudi Arabia seems to be determined to follow its plan to ramp up oil exports in April, with the market already having observed a first wave...

    

75. US Supreme Court Safe Berth Clause

    02 April 2020

    On 31 March 2020 the US Supreme Court decided that the safe berth clause in charter parties establishes a warranty of safety, in what is being...

    

76. China container volumes seesaw on Western recession conditions

    30 March 2020 Peter Tirschwell

    A seesaw effect of cargo and empty container movement between Asia and North America is beginning to take shape as the extended China manufacturing...

    

77. Sanctions against Iran: the long-term effects on international crude oil trades

    30 March 2020

    If the sanctions against Iran remain unchanged, Iran is expected to lose its revenues resulting from the reduction of crude oil exports by 1.210...

    

78. Coronavirus leaves Europe exporters without empty containers

    27 March 2020 Greg Knowler

    Extensive blank sailings have left virtually no empty containers available at European ports, according to the latest data, and extreme measures...

    

79. Coronavirus brings famine before feast for trans-Pacific container volumes

    26 March 2020

    Just as the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) spreads from China to North America, the disruptive impact of the pandemic will shift from worries...

    

80. The escalating pandemic and the prospects for the six largest European economies

    26 March 2020 Tomasz Brodzicki, Ph.D.

    The global spread of the COVID-19 epidemic is the single biggest risk facing the world economy in early 2020.

    

81. COVID-19 shaping the future of the US crude oil market

    25 March 2020 Fotios Katsoulas

    The sharp decline in the West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the primary US oil benchmark, by around USD 30 per barrel in just a month, leaves no...

    

82. High-Frequency Commodities at Sea data shows strong Indian crude oil imports since mid-February, but the lockdown will drive huge destruction

    24 March 2020 Fotios Katsoulas

    Indian crude oil imports reached 4.5 million b/d in February, with March currently standing at 4.55 million b/d, primarily driven by lower oil...

    

83. Resource curse and the potential impact of COVID-19: the case of Russia

    17 March 2020 Tomasz Brodzicki, Ph.D.

    Russia is considered as a bookcase example of a resource course-stricken economy with a growth model highly dependent on the price of oil and...

    

84. Extent of Chinese factory slump supports fears over inventory levels

    13 March 2020 Greg Knowler

    China’s record slump in manufacturing output during factory closures in February to combat the spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)...

    

85. Trade analysis: Sluggish 2019, major shake-up in Q1 and endangered recovery in Q2 2020

    11 March 2020 Tomasz Brodzicki, Ph.D.

    The y/y changes in trade data for four out of the main nine economies of the world show that 2019 was a difficult year with sluggish growth and...

    

86. Crude oil trade flows enter uncharted territory as Saudi Arabia plans to increase production

    10 March 2020 Fotios Katsoulas

    Crude oil market seems to be transitioning into a new era, with multiple adjustments expected across the world.

    

87. High-frequency Commodities at Sea data shows Chinese imports drop persisting, crude recovers and no significant signs of normalcy for dry bulk yet

    10 March 2020 Rahul Kapoor

    Crude oil imports recover in late February, iron ore, coal, minor bulks seeing double dip.

    

88. Pattern of trade for the US and China

    26 February 2020 Tomasz Brodzicki, Ph.D.

    Both US and Chinese exports and imports show significant seasonality; the seasonal component is stronger for China than for the US.

    

89. High-frequency Commodities at Sea data shows drop for Chinese imports easing, early signs of recovery from depressed levels

    25 February 2020 Rahul Kapoor

    Average weekly crude oil discharged in China has returned closer to normal levels despite a lower vessel count.

    

90. Agri-food exports of China

    25 February 2020 Tomasz Brodzicki, Ph.D.

    Chinese exports of agri-food commodities amounted to USD 64.83 billion in 2019. It increased by 85% in comparison to 2005

    

91. Unipec in Rare Shipment of Vietnam Crude to Hawaii

    21 February 2020

    Unipec, China’s biggest oil trader, has chartered a tanker to ship a cargo of Vietnamese crude to Hawaii, in the first such shipment in more...

    

92. Safety at Sea launches the 2020 Maritime Cyber Security survey

    20 February 2020

    The fifth annual Safety at Sea/ BIMCO Maritime Cyber Security survey, launched on 10 February, examines industry attitudes, measures cyber security...

    

93. Crude Oil Trade: Korean imports to feel the impact of the coronavirus

    20 February 2020 Fotios Katsoulas

    The coronavirus's effect starts becoming clear, with China’s energy demand falling sharply.

    

94. Impact of COVID-19 on the Chinese and global economy

    18 February 2020 Tomasz Brodzicki, Ph.D.

    The outbreak of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) is for the time being the most significant black swan of 2020

    

95. Crude Oil: Another Shipment from Guyana

    18 February 2020 Fotios Katsoulas

    After the first cargo was loaded on Suezmax “YANNIS P.” in late January, IHS Markit Commodities at Sea identified a second shipment coming from...

    

96. Crude Oil: Indian demand strengthening as a result of coronavirus shaping global oil prices

    18 February 2020 Fotios Katsoulas

    Weak crude oil prices driven by the coronavirus outbreak seem to have positively affected demand for crude oil in India.

    

97. Crude Oil Trade: More pressure for the US due to coronavirus

    07 February 2020 Fotios Katsoulas

    Oil producers based in the US, the major driver of global supply growth, have been going through downsizing to rationalise debt. These companies...

    

98. Crude Oil Trade: Coronavirus shaping sentiment for now, but potentially a huge impact on the horizon

    06 February 2020 Fotios Katsoulas

    The oil market is going through the biggest negative demand shock since the Great Recession of 2008-2009, with the spread of the coronavirus...

    

99. Crude Oil Trade: Russia’s production and shipments up, but coronavirus could alter the trend

    05 February 2020 Fotios Katsoulas

    Russian oil output has again approached record high levels last month, with January’s production estimated at 11.28 million b/d, including gas...

    

100. The impact of sanctions policy: More difficulties to come in 2020

     28 January 2020 Byron McKinney

     The sanctions imposed on subsidiary ship owners that were part of the COSCO Shipping family in late 2019 by the Office of Foreign Asset Control...

     

101. Brexit scenarios for the UK, EU, and global trade relations

     28 January 2020 Tomasz Brodzicki, Ph.D.

     The UK will leave the European Union on 31 January 2020 after 47 years of membership (a truly once in a century event). The uncertainty over...

     

102. Dry Bulk Trade: Impact of 'phase-one' trade agreement

     24 January 2020 Daejin Lee

     On 15 January 2020, President Trump and Chinese Vice Premier He signed the highly anticipated “phase-one” trade agreement between the US and...

     

103. Crude Oil Trade: First shipment from Guyana heading to Galveston

     24 January 2020 Fotios Katsoulas

     The debut of Guyana’s seaborne exports is rather significant for the regional market, as the producer will add significant output capacity.

     

104. Crude Oil Trade: Libya crisis driving global concern while potentially impacting oil prices

     23 January 2020 Fotios Katsoulas

     Concern increases around the future of Libya’s crude oil production yet again. There doesn’t seem to be any improvement on the horizon. Libya’s...

     

105. Trade analysis: China's steel and iron exports

     23 January 2020 Tomasz Brodzicki, Ph.D.

     China is by far the largest exporter of iron and steel in 2019 having exported 87.3 million metric tons which equals approximately 15.8 % of...

     

106. Crude Oil Trade: US-China relations improving aiding crude oil trade flows

     20 January 2020 Fotios Katsoulas

     The US Senate has approved the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement, while a trade deal was signed earlier this week between Washington and Beijing...

     

107. Crude Oil Trade: South Korea importing more US barrels, mitigating potential disruption through the Strait of Hormuz

     16 January 2020 Fotios Katsoulas

     In 2017, producers across the Middle East supplied around 74% of crude oil flows to South Korea, with their share having dropped to 68% in 2018...

     

108. Dry Bulk Trade: China's record low coal imports in December, a signal for a record high in January 2020?

     14 January 2020 Daejin Lee

     China's 2019 coal imports were up 6.3% compared with 2018 levels, while December’s imports tumbled nearly 73% to 2.77 million tonnes.

     

109. Crude Oil Trade: OPEC's shipments remain low

     14 January 2020 Fotios Katsoulas

     OPEC seems to be determined to do all they can to support crude oil prices, with their production having dropped further in December.

     

110. Crude Oil Trade: Brazil’s shipments hitting new highs

     13 January 2020 Fotios Katsoulas

     Brazil’s crude oil production has remained strong since November, when it reached a new record high, according to the National Petroleum Agency....

     

111. Will US Iran tensions destabilize the Middle East and global oil markets?

     09 January 2020 Tomasz Brodzicki, Ph.D.

     The current escalation of tensions with the US will adversely affect the Iranian economy and its trade relations and could destabilize the Middle...

     

112. Outlook for Global Trade in 2020

     02 January 2020

     World merchandise trade volume is forecasted to grow 2.7% in 2020, and to grow by 5.0% in 2021.

     

113. Crude Oil Trade: Is Brazil becoming OPEC's next big headache?

     09 December 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     Brazil's crude oil production has continued to bounce back last month, with operations at the Mero Field having restarted.

     

114. Crude Oil Trade: Nigeria in line with OPEC+ production cuts as global interest for its grades increases

     04 December 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     Nigeria’s compliance has improved since August, production of crude stood close to 1.8 million b/d in October, much lower than the 1.96 million...

     

115. IMO2020: The Potential Impact and Effect on Trade Finance

     03 December 2019 Byron McKinney

     Shipping is a crucial component of trade finance and anything that impacts the regulatory or financial standing of a vessel, a vessels ownership...

     

116. Crude Oil Trade: Russia still producing more than agreed with OPEC+

     03 December 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     There are only days left till OPEC’s next meeting, with all eyes now on Russia’s response.

     

117. Global Trade Insight: US Imports from China in the wake of the trade war

     02 December 2019

     US imports from China in 2017 reached over 70.5 million tonnes and exceeded 75.2 million tonnes in 2018. We predict lower growth rates in 2019...

     

118. Crude Oil Trade: Colombia targeting production growth of 4% in 2020

     15 November 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     Colombia's state-controlled Ecopetrol plans to expand its production of crude oil in 2020, with a target to increase production by around 4%...

     

119. Crude Oil Trade: South Sudan focusing on nearby importers

     14 November 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     South Sudan might start selling crude oil directly to its neighbours, after Ethiopia expressed its interest to buy oil from the country, in an...

     

120. Crude Oil Trade: Algerian exports back on track

     13 November 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     Algerian crude oil loadings seem to have returned to normal levels, close to 600,000 b/d, in October. Activity has recovered, after falling in...

     

121. Crude Oil Trade: Russia reducing production but not meeting their obligation

     12 November 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     Russia’s crude oil production dropped to 11.23 million b/d in October from 11.25 million b/d in September. However, the country did not meet...

     

122. Crude Oil Trade: Iraq exports declining along with Suezmax market share

     11 November 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     Iraq has been producing below its capacity of almost five million b/d, following the production cut agreement between OPEC and ten non-OPEC producers....

     

123. Crude Oil Trade: Nigeria shipped less in October, but demand for Suezmax increased

     08 November 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     There is no doubt that the construction of the 650,000 b/d Dangote refinery in Nigeria will be a landmark both for the oil industry in West Africa...

     

124. Crude Oil Trade: Mexico recovering, with a limited impact on shipping

     07 November 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     Pemex recently announced its results for September, with crude oil production having reached 1.731 million b/d, up 24,000 b/d since August, but...

     

125. Crude Oil Trade: Great potential for Canada, although obstacles to overcome first

     06 November 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     After the US oil boom, Canada, together with Brazil, is another country whose production will expand dramatically over the next decade.

     

126. Crude Oil Trade: Kuwait reduces production targets due to environmental concerns

     05 November 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     Kuwait is understood to be considering a reduction in its oil production capacity targets. OPEC’s fourth biggest producer may reduce its long-standing...

     

127. Crude Oil Trade: Saudi Arabia exports to Japan remain normal

     04 November 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     Saudi Arabia has continued shipping crude oil to Japanese refiners without any major impact observed so far after the attacks on Saudi Arabian...

     

128. Crude Oil Trade: US seaborne imports remain at 3 million b/d, while shipments marginally surpass 2.6 million b/d in October

     31 October 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     US seaborne exports of crude oil will not surpass 3 million b/d in October, as preliminary data by IHS Markit Commodities at Sea has shown.

     

129. Crude Oil Trade: Another exemption for Chevron in Venezuela, but Rosneft planning to take control of PDVSA

     31 October 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     Chevron has been given permission by the US government to continue its operations in Venezuela for another quarter.

     

130. Crude Oil Trade: South Korea's appetite for US crude increasing ahead of 2020

     30 October 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     South Korea's crude oil imports from the US have increased by 150% year-on-year, with flows averaging 350,000 b/d between January and mid-October...

     

131. Crude Oil Trade: When it rains, it pours for Brazil, although VLCC shipments on the rise

     29 October 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     Following an oil spill which affected more than 200 beaches across the country, state-run oil company, Petrobras, has been hit with another potential...

     

132. Crude Oil Trade: Indian imports recovering fast, while trade with the US will strengthen further

     28 October 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     Trade flows from the US to India are expected to flourish further, especially as New Delhi is trying to reduce its reliance on OPEC suppliers...

     

133. Crude Oil Trade: Disappointing news from Libya

     28 October 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     Security continues being the biggest obstacle for Libya, one of Africa’s most significant oil producers. Lack of stability and the ongoing conflict...

     

134. US resin exports rocketing as new plants come online

     24 October 2019 Bill Mongelluzzo

     Fueled by a dozen new plants and more capacity on the way, United States resin exports jumped 35 percent in the first half of the year as growing...

     

135. Crude Oil Trade: Russia keeping their word

     24 October 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     Russia’s production of crude oil did not exceed 11.25 million b/d in first half of October, according to official data released earlier this...

     

136. Crude Oil Trade: Angola doing its best to revert production decline

     23 October 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     Angola has been facing some severe challenges in its effort to maintain crude oil production since the oil price collapse in 2014.

     

137. Crude Oil Trade: Ecuadorian exports reach record low in October, but set to quickly recover

     22 October 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     Ecuador's crude oil exports reached a new record low in October. Average volumes loaded on tankers since early October currently stand below...

     

138. Crude Oil Trade: High transportation costs unsustainable, as inflated freight rates unlikely to last

     15 October 2019 Rahul Kapoor Fotios Katsoulas

     VLCC freight rates at USD 300,000 per day to carry crude oil from the Middle East to Asia aren’t sustainable for a prolonged period in our view....

     

139. Maritime Cyber Security: Tackling the weakest link in cyber risk management

     14 October 2019

     Maritime Cyber Security: Tackling the weakest link in cyber risk management

     

140. Crude Oil Trade: New quota for Nigeria’s share of OPEC+ production cuts

     11 October 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     OPEC decided to raise the oil output ceiling for Nigeria to 1.774 million b/d, from 1.685 million b/d.

     

141. COSCO Shipping & OFAC Sanctions - The Nightmare in the Haystack

     08 October 2019 Byron McKinney

     The latest edition to the US Department of the Treasury’s Executive Order 13846 on re-imposing sanctions with respect to Iran has led to several...

     

142. Crude Oil Trade: Japan switching away from Saudi Arabia’s heavy grades

     07 October 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     Chilean Supreme Court order to re-assess mining project signals legal uncertainties and likely delays for large-scale developments

     

143. Crude Oil Trade: Changes in the suppliers’ market, while Indian imports marginally down in September

     04 October 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     Crude Oil Trade: Changes in the suppliers’ market, while Indian imports marginally down in September

     

144. Dry Bulk Trade: Record Brazil Corn Shipments a Warning Signal for Q4 US Grain Season

     03 October 2019 Daejin Lee

     Dry Bulk Trade: Record Brazil Corn Shipments a Warning Signal for Q4 US Grain Season

     

145. Crude Oil Trade: Russian production down, with seaborne exports unchanged in September

     03 October 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     Crude Oil Trade: Russian production down, with seaborne exports unchanged in September

     

146. Crude Oil Trade : COSCO tankers key to Chinese oil imports, US sanctions implication highly negative

     01 October 2019 Rahul Kapoor Fotios Katsoulas

     The dominant role played by tanker subsidiaries of COSCO Shipping Corporation in Chinese oil imports will have a ripple effect as buyers scramble...

     

147. Crude Oil Trade: Iraq production and seaborne exports on the increase

     25 September 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     Shipments of crude oil from Iraq have been increasing in September. Volumes currently surpass 3.7 million b/d, as shown by data from IHS Markit...

     

148. Trade Finance: OFAC clamping down on Sudanese sanction breaches

     24 September 2019 Byron McKinney

     The Office of Foreign Asset Control (OFAC) has issued a fine of $4 million to the British Arab Commercial Bank (BACB) regarding violation of...

     

149. Nickel Ore Trade: Indonesia will again ban exports of nickel ore, encouraging investors to build smelters at home to produce value-added products

     23 September 2019 Daejin Lee

     Indonesia will again ban exports of nickel ore, encouraging investors to build smelters at home to produce value-added products: Nickel prices...

     

150. Iron Ore: September imports to remain elevated while prices face downside risk

     20 September 2019 Rahul Kapoor

     Chinese iron ore imports are unlikely to show any signs of easing in the near-term with imports likely to stay elevated despite economic malaise...

     

151. Iron Ore Freight: IMO 2020 scrubber retrofits tighten supply, behind freight market surge

     19 September 2019 Rahul Kapoor Daejin Lee

     A sequential decline in August iron ore export volumes from Brazil is at odds with Capesize freight rates surging to a six-year high in recent...

     

152. Crude Oil Trade: VLCC loadings from Ras Tanura remain unaffected for now, although likely to dip

     18 September 2019 Rahul Kapoor Fotios Katsoulas

     Saturday’s drone attacks on Saudi Arabia’s critical oil production assets will drive up uncertainty in the global tanker industry given the region’s...

     

153. Crude Oil Trade: What could follow the drone attacks in Saudi Arabia?

     16 September 2019 Rahul Kapoor Fotios Katsoulas

     Drone attacks which damaged critical oil production assets in Saudi Arabia will alter global crude tradeflows. The country’s oil output is estimated...

     

154. Crude Oil Trade: Russia targeting more opportunities in India

     12 September 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     As China’s economic growth is expected to continue to slowdown, Russia has started focusing more on the Indian market. The two countries recently...

     

155. Crude Oil Trade: Iraq production on the up as UAE question deeper cuts

     11 September 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     With OPEC increasing its output and exports in August, the big topic in the market has been what to expect as the cartel’s next meeting is approaching....

     

156. Crude Oil Trade: Venezuelan exports reach new record low

     10 September 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     Venezuela's crude oil exports continued to fall in August, they have now estimated to have reached their lowest level in 2019.

     

157. Crude Oil Trade: Brazilian shipments increase as fundamentals remain positive

     09 September 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     Brazilian oil production increased last month and is now estimated to be approaching 2.8 million b/d. Growth has reached 8% year-on-year.

     

158. Crude Oil Trade: If China avoids US oil in 2020, will Saudi Arabia step in?

     06 September 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     With the trade war between China and the US escalating and with tariffs now in effect, it comes as no real surprise that oil prices have been...

     

159. Crude Oil Trade: OPEC need to cut more to support prices, although figures from August suggest an increase in shipments

     05 September 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     Oil prices have been under more pressure since early September, with OPEC expected to meet next week to discuss how prices could be supported....

     

160. Crude Oil Trade: Saudi Arabia’s plan for more production cuts

     29 August 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     There is no doubt that Saudi Arabia is still determined to support oil prices, even if its production would have to be further cut. The country’s...

     

161. Crude Oil Trade: Europeans interested in new West African grades

     28 August 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     European importers’ appetite for West African crude oil barrels seems to be quite strong lately. Nigeria's Egina, one of the newest oil grades...

     

162. Crude Oil Trade: Venezuelan production expanding and turning light with China’s support

     27 August 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     Beijing has made it clear that its support to Caracas will last, after the recently announced expansion of Chinese investment in Venezuela’s...

     

163. Crude Oil Trade: Increase in Russian exports from the Black Sea

     23 August 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     Total volumes of crude oil liftings from Russia have been marginally down in July and August, as the decline reached 1.2% since June, however...

     

164. Crude Oil Trade: Saudi Arabia strengthening exposure to Indian oil market

     22 August 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     Saudi Aramco will take over a fifth of Reliance Industries’ refining business. It has become very clear that after strengthening its market in...

     

165. Crude Oil Trade: Algerian exports remain flat, while uncertainty increases

     21 August 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     Algeria has failed to diversify away from oil and gas, which still represent 95% of total exports and around a third of GDP.

     

166. Crude Oil Trade: Aframax rates under more pressure in August

     20 August 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     The beginning of August wasn’t so positive for the Aframax segment, with rates having failed to recover, as earlier anticipated. The situation...

     

167. Crude Oil Trade: No miracles for suezmax rates

     19 August 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     In 2019 to date, suezmax vessels have proved rather sensitive to market volatility. In the European market, rates to move cargo from the Black...

     

168. Crude Oil Trade: Libyan production and exports back to normal?

     16 August 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     Good news from Libya, as production has gradually restarted at El Sharara. This is the country’s largest oilfield, south of Zawiya port. Capacity...

     

169. When OFAC issues new guidelines organisations need to act fast

     15 August 2019

     OFAC recently announced its Reporting, Procedures and Penalties Regulations (RPPR) that outlined the recordkeeping and auditing functions for...

     

170. Crude Oil Trade: Angola exports more to China, but overall volumes are down

     15 August 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     China has been dominating with volumes of Angolan exports accounting for more than 60% so far this year. Flows to the Far Eastern country have...

     

171. Crude Oil Trade: Indian output under pressure

     14 August 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     With the country’s crude oil output under pressure, India has been increasingly dependent on imported barrels to meet domestic requirements....

     

172. Crude Oil Trade: Challenges ahead for Japanese imports

     13 August 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     According to the Japanese Agency of Energy and Natural Resource (AENR), Japan imported around 27 million barrels of crude oil in June 2019 from...

     

173. Crude Oil Trade: VLCC rates climbing quickly, but for how long?

     12 August 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     With oil prices deepening fast, it has become clear that employment has been increasing in the VLCC market, even older units have secured voyages...

     

174. Crude Oil Trade: Brazilian liftings remain high while maintenance reduces production

     09 August 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     Brazil’s crude oil production has been under pressure lately, having dropped by around 6.5% during the last three months, after an impressive...

     

175. Crude Oil Trade: Kuwait strengthening market position

     08 August 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     It seems Kuwait has been very active in taking measures to improve conditions in favour of its oil industry, in an effort to strengthen its position...

     

176. Crude Oil Trade: Nigerian liftings up in July as the USA strengthen their share

     07 August 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     August didn’t start well for the West African crude oil producer. Nigeria Union of Petroleum and Natural Gas Workers (NUPENG), one of the country’s...

     

177. Crude Oil Trade: Saudi Arabia focusing on Chinese demand

     06 August 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     It came as no surprise that Saudi Arabia’s oil revenue declined 5% year-on-year, as the OPEC+ production cut agreement has been shaping the country’s...

     

178. Crude Oil Trade: East Africa in focus, Sudan facing difficulties, while Kenya starts exporting

     05 August 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     Sudanese crude oil lifting volumes have averaged 134 thousand b/d so far in 2019, with China absorbing more than 60% of these barrels.

     

179. Crude Oil Trade: Limited optimism for Mexican crude oil shipments

     23 July 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     Mexico has been liquifying some of its oil assets, but instead of deep-water blocks, it has mainly been oil fields closer to shore. This has...

     

180. Crude Oil Trade: Colombia taking first big steps to recover

     22 July 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     The Andean producer has been trying to recover after a tough 2018 driven by weaker oil production, volatility oil prices, security issues and...

     

181. Crude Oil Trade: More samba for China as Brazil increases international shipments

     19 July 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     There is a lot of optimism to report from Brazil with oil companies getting ready to boost exports as the pre-salt production increases. International...

     

182. Crude Oil Trade: Keeping up with Venezuela, June’s recovery in crude oil liftings

     18 July 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     According to data by IHS Markit’s Commodities at Sea, Venezuelan crude oil loadings in June were around 870 thousand b/d. This suggests that...

     

183. Oil Prices: Correction after the storm in the US Gulf

     17 July 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     Last week, oil prices recovered significantly, primarily supported by the continued decline in US crude inventories. This suggests that the supply...

     

184. VLCC Rates: Is the impact of Additional War Risk Premiums (AWRP) over as seasonality proves stronger?

     15 July 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     July is a typically poor month for the VLCC segment, with activity slowing down across all major exporting regions. There has been limited optimism...

     

185. The US–China Trade War and its increasing impact on trade compliance

     15 July 2019

     The recent announcement from FedEx that the multinational cargo carrier has filed a lawsuit against the US Department of Commerce is the latest...

     

186. Crude Oil Trade: Flows from the US to South Korea, trade partners by choice

     09 July 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     South Korea’s appetite for sweet crude oil grades has been strengthening since late 2018, with the Far Eastern importer favouring imports from...

     

187. Dry Bulk Trade: Bad news for China is good news for Iron ore market?

     05 July 2019 Daejin Lee

     IHS Markit freight forecast models, released yesterday, predict dry bulk freight rates to strengthen in the second half, as more aggressive stimulus...

     

188. Crude Oil Trade: Mexico exporting less to the US, but for how long?

     28 June 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     Mexican crude oil production has been under severe pressure, with volumes down so far this year.

     

189. Crude Oil Trade: Libya’s big plans to expand

     20 June 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     The North African producer seems to have recovered well, even with increasing concerns around the impact of the ongoing civil conflict.  Libya’s...

     

190. Crude Oil Trade: VLCC spot rates, more concern across the Gulf favouring vessel owners

     18 June 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     Spot rates in the Middle East Gulf have increased dynamically on Thursday and Friday after two tankers were attacked in the Gulf of Oman. Concerns...

     

191. Crude Oil Trade: Interest for new projects in Angola, while exports recover

     12 June 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     The Angolan government, led by President Joao Lourenco, has made significant steps to support the future crude production of the country, which...

     

192. Crude Oil Trade: Beijing could define the future of Iranian crude oil export

     11 June 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     China’s crude oil imports from Iran increased dynamically in April, before the end of the sanction waivers pushed volumes to decline sharply...

     

193. Crude Oil Trade: All eyes on Russia for OPEC+’s next meeting

     10 June 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     With Iran having already expressed its opposition to OPEC for any delay of the cartel’s next meeting, another fight between members might not...

     

194. Crude Oil Trade: Iraq making big plans for crude oil

     07 June 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     The US sanctions on Iran gave a great opportunity to Iraq, which shortly after increased its target for crude oil production to 6.2 million b/d...

     

195. Crude Oil Trade: Is another trade war going to shake crude oil trade flows?

     06 June 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     In parallel to the trade war between Washington and Beijing, the global oil market will likely need to adjust once again, as President Trump...

     

196. Crude Oil Trade: Risk of a global slowdown pressurizing oil prices

     05 June 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     A sharp decline was observed in late May, with Brent standing above USD 63.6 per barrel on 3 June, noon (UK time). The market seems worried about...

     

197. Crude Oil Trade: Suezmaxes feeling more pressure in West Africa

     04 June 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     West African loadings seem to have increased by 4.6% month-on-month in May, but this wasn’t enough to support Suezmax earnings in the region...

     

198. Crude Oil Trade: Aframax gains in the Mediterranean

     03 June 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     There has been some recovery lately for Aframaxes in the Mediterranean, after the pressure felt last month due to the plethora of vessels available...

     

199. Crude Oil Trade: Brazilian grades remain popular across China, with output of Buzios to double by the end of 2019

     31 May 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     Apart from Lula, Chinese buyers seem to be increasingly interested in another Brazilian grade, Buzios. Petrobras expects this new medium sweet...

     

200. Crude Oil Trade: Russia’s liftings down, but for how long as Saudi Arabia increases exports?

     30 May 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     Russia’s seaborne exports seem to have started to decline, even if the change is only marginal. Loadings during the first three weeks of May...

     

201. Crude Oil Trade: Iran after the end of waivers

     29 May 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     Since early May, all US waivers on Iranian barrels came to an end, but the big question is whether and how many Iranian barrels reach their destination...

     

202. Crude Oil Trade: Uncertainty causing pressure on oil prices

     28 May 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     Market conditions continue to change lately, with sentiment adjusting to recent news. Oil prices have been falling during the last couple of...

     

203. OFAC Related Notices April and May 2019

     28 May 2019

     There has been a flurry of sanctions related penalties issued by US authorities in April and May 2019, continuing the overall theme so far of...

     

204. OFAC Framework for Compliance Controls

     22 May 2019

     The Office of Foreign Asset Control (OFAC) has for the first time issued guidelines on what it believes constitutes a robust compliance program...

     

205. Coal Trade: Chinese imports for May trend higher

     16 May 2019

     China’s total seaborne imports of all types of coal appear to have increased in May, from the level of April. Australian cargoes also appear...

     

206. Crude Oil Trade: High uncertainty around the future of OPEC+

     14 May 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     With around six weeks left until the next meeting of OPEC+ countries, Russia doesn’t appear to be reducing its output and exports.

     

207. Crude Oil Trade: Middle East Gulf and Western Africa flows to India strengthening, replacing volumes from Iran

     13 May 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     In parallel to uncertainty increasing after saboteurs attacked Saudi Arabian oil tankers amid Middle East tensions between the US and Iran, the...

     

208. Crude Oil Trade: Large ships still struggling in the freight market

     09 May 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     With the freight market going through a quiet period, it came as no surprise that there has been no significant change in the freight market...

     

209. Crude Oil Trade: US imports more, but prices fall as President Trump threatens with higher tariffs

     08 May 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     Recent data by IHS Markit’s Commodities at Sea suggests the US has started increasing its imports from exporters across Americas and West Africa....

     

210. Crude Oil Trade: VLCC rates under severe pressure, could older units be sold for storage?

     01 May 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     April was a difficult month for VLCC owners, with freight rates in the Middle East Gulf still feeling the pressure of OPEC production cuts.

     

211. Trade Policy Insights: Brexit impact on agriculture and the food supply chain

     30 April 2019

     Post-Brexit, the UK has to provide funding for farmers and rural communities development to replace the EU funding of 26 billion EUR.

     

212. Crude Oil Trade: Oil prices fall as President Trump requests Saudi Arabia to increase output, but OPEC+ cuts remain in place

     30 April 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     With Iranian sanction waivers coming to an end, oil traders must adjust quickly to the new market conditions. There is still optimism that at...

     

213. Crude Oil Trade: Aframax rates drop further

     29 April 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     With tonnage increasing east of Suez, rates for Aframaxes were pushed lower on Easter Monday, as charterers had more choices available.

     

214. Crude Oil Trade: No resurrection for Iran

     26 April 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     Waivers from US sanctions on Iranian barrels will expire on May 2, as scheduled.

     

215. Trade Policy Insights: EU Agriculture - New US Trade War?

     26 April 2019

     The US is turning to the EU to find ways to decrease the trade deficit that reached close to 890 billion USD in 2018, the largest in over 20...

     

216. Crude Oil Trade: There's something about the oil price

     25 April 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     More and more banks and other institutions are publishing forecasts suggesting that the oil price could increase during the next couple of months...

     

217. Crude Oil Trade: VLCC rates in the Middle East Gulf, moving up and down but remaining below WS45

     24 April 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     There were some marginal improvements observed in the last couple of weeks in freight rates for VLCCs, supported by steady charterer interest...

     

218. Crude Oil Trade: Saudi Arabia and UAE committed to production cuts, even if US inventories increase

     23 April 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     Saudi Arabia is determined to proceed with the plan of OPEC+ to maintain oil production at low levels.

     

219. Track vessel activity and verify cargo and vessel documentation with confidence

     23 April 2019

     Following the recent North Korea sanctions advisory dated (March 21, 2019) issued by the US Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Affairs...

     

220. Crude Oil Trade: Has Russia started decreasing its output?

     18 April 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     Total loadings during the first ten days of April suggests activity has dropped 6.5% month-on-month and around 4% year-on-year.

     

221. Crude Oil Trade: Another deal for China, growth potential in South Sudan

     17 April 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     Beijing has further strengthened its influence, this time in East Africa, after securing access to more natural resources, by funding the construction...

     

222. Crude Oil Trade: Suezmax earnings, no matter how long the winter, spring is sure to follow

     16 April 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     In early April, charterers were showing preference towards loading on Suezmaxes than on VLCCs, even for cargoes heading to India.

     

223. Crude Oil Trade: Nigeria adjusting to US shale boom and OPEC agreement

     15 April 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     With the US turning into a net exporter of crude oil, flows from Nigeria to the US Gulf have been dropping since early 2018.

     

224. Crude Oil Trade: Venezuela's pain is Brazil's gain

     12 April 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     The big question in the market once the US imposed sanctions against Venezuela earlier in 2019 has been “then who?”. This refers to the importer(s)...

     

225. Crude Oil Trade: Libya braced for another war, will this impact crude oil flows?

     11 April 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     For Ancient Greeks, Plutus, the god of wealth, was depicted as a boy in the arms of Eirene, the goddess of peace. It looks like prosperity can...

     

226. Crude Oil Trade: VLCC freight rates, what goes up must come down

     10 April 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     April started with the market’s sentiment in the Middle East Gulf (MEG) deteriorating further, as several shipowners compete for a smaller amount...

     

227. Crude Oil Trade: Will the alliance last? OPEC struggles with Russia

     03 April 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     According to recent data provided by IHS Markit’s Commodities at Sea, Russia’s seaborne exports increased in March, having surpassed five million...

     

228. Maritime & Trade Overview

     29 March 2019

     Maritime & Trade Overview

     

229. The Trade Numerologist: Vietnam, New Export Power, Aims at Chinese, US Markets

     25 March 2019 John Miller

     After recovering from the war with the US, which decimated the countryside and killed millions of people, Vietnamese leaders in the 1980s started...

     

230. Crude Oil Trade: Middle Eastern production down, flows to the Far East marginally affected

     22 March 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     Saudi Arabia, as most other crude oil producers across the Middle East, look determined to supply full contractual term volumes to Asian refiners....

     

231. Crude Oil Trade: Venezuelan exports through the eyes of OPEC and Russia, everything is fine

     20 March 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     With most experts anticipating Venezuela’s output to further decline over the next couple of weeks, PDVSA, the country’s state-run oil produce...

     

232. Crude Oil Trade: Falling one after the other, Algeria might be next OPEC member with fragile production

     19 March 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     It didn’t take long after the positive news on Libya, with production of the country’s major oil field expected to fully recover by end of this...

     

233. The Trade Numerologist: Africa’s Promise Relies on Inter-Continental Trade

     18 March 2019 John Miller

     For decades, Africa’s top economies have sought to build a new brand of widespread durable prosperity and escape the painful legacy of colonialism....

     

234. Crude Oil Trade: Russia seaborne exports, no rush in proceeding with OPEC cuts so far

     18 March 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     Saudi Arabia and most other OPEC members have proved rather decisive so far in terms of output cuts agreed in the last OPEC+ meeting, with most...

     

235. Crude Oil Trade: UK output to decline, loadings remain below 800k bpd

     15 March 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     With continued uncertainty around Brexit, the IEA recently commented that a “disorderly Brexit” would affect global oil demand, as consumption...

     

236. Crude Oil Trade: Venezuela set to collapse, opportunity for Brazil and Mexico

     14 March 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     Venezuelan crude oil production is set to fall further, if US sanctions remain in place, and is now expected to reach 750,000 bpd during this...

     

237. Crude Oil Trade: Libya's Sharara close to normal production by end of March

     13 March 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     The crude oil trade is highly affected by geopolitical parameters, which directly shape the size and the direction of flows around the world....

     

238. Liquid Bulk Analysis: US loading more on VLCCs

     12 March 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     The VLCC market has been realising significant gains driven by the increasing loading activity in the US Gulf. However, the country’s only deep-water...

     

239. The Trade Numerologist: After Strong 2018, German Exports Threatened by Global Trade War

     11 March 2019 John Miller

     Perhaps no country risks losing more from the winds of protectionism and tariffs sweeping the world than Germany.

     

240. Saudi Arabian Crude Oil Exports: Focusing on China, as flows to the US decline

     07 March 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     Exports of OPEC members seem to have further declined in February, with the overall change month-on-month remaining around -6.7%.

     

241. The Trade Numerologist: War, Oil Dependence, Israel, Iran and Other Challenges of Middle East Trade

     04 March 2019 John Miller

     As European and Arab leaders gathered in late February for a summit in Egypt, they promised to focus on boosting trade between the two regions....

     

242. The Trade Numerologist: Is Natural Gas Australia’s Next Lucky Card?

     26 February 2019 John Miller

     If you were to design an economy perfectly tailored to succeed in the modern global economy, it might look like Australia’s. The country of 23.5...

     

243. Trade Policy Insights: The Irish Backstop and Trade – What and how much?

     22 February 2019

     The backstop means there would be a single EU-UK customs territory. There would be no tariffs, quotas, or rules of origin checks between the...

     

244. China’s growth slowing down, another risk for crude oil demand

     20 February 2019

     With China’s economic growth near a three-decade low, having reached 6.4% in 2018, there is a lot of concern about the global crude oil market’s...

     

245. The Trade Numerologist: Iron Ore Trade Faces New Volatility

     19 February 2019 John Miller

     The global iron ore business is entering a new era of uncertainty. After a two-decade boom, mining and seaborne trade of the mineral essential...

     

246. India's big potential, good news for shipping?

     15 February 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     India, the world’s second biggest crude oil importer, absorbed around 9.5% of global trade flows last year. The country has been recently switching...

     

247. The Trade Numerologist: Chinese New Year’s Big Impact on Global Trade

     12 February 2019 John Miller

     One of global trade’s most pivotal factors has become the Chinese New Year, which kicked off this year on February 5.

     

248. VLCCs for Libya? Too many hurdles to overcome

     11 February 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     Last year, Libyan crude oil production averaged around 50,000 barrels per day (b/d) lower than the 1 Mn b/d target earlier set by the state....

     

249. Trade Policy Insights: UK & EU Customs Union – Why in, why out?

     07 February 2019

     If the UK leaves the EU customs union, it would be able to negotiate free trade agreements on its own terms with non-EU countries, and the EU....

     

250. VLCC crude oil loadings: “Slow but steady wins the race”

     05 February 2019 Fotios Katsoulas

     A month is already gone and the first messages we get for 2019 might not be as promising as some shipowners would have earlier wished for.

     

251. The Trade Numerologist: Coal Came Back From the Dead in 2018

     04 February 2019 John Miller

     Coal is having a rebound moment. Even as US and European miners endure bankruptcies, and regulations to cap carbon emissions, the black rock...

     

252. VLCC Spot Market

     29 January 2019

     Despite the earlier optimism among some owners, January hasn’t been an easy month for the Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) segment.

     

253. A Changing Crude Oil Market and Implications for Asian Buyers

     25 January 2019 Dr. Victor Shum Anindya Boral

     A Changing Crude Oil Market and Implications for Asian Buyers

     

254. Trade Numerologist: Booming Chinese Wine Market

     28 December 2018 John Miller

     The fastest-growing wine market is China, where a bottle of Bordeaux is replacing a traditional Chinese liquor called baijiu as the alcohol of...

     

255. The Trade Numerologist: Peru’s Big Bet on Copper Market

     17 December 2018 John Miller

     Peru is already the world’s second largest copper exporter and recent elections indicate it’s prepared to bet even more heavily on mining.

     

256. The Trade Numerologist: China Dominates Christmas Toy Trade

     11 December 2018 John Miller

     It’s almost Christmas, peak buying season for the $100 billion global toy market. That means it’s time for manufacturers, shipping lines and...

     

257. The Trade Numerologist: Climate Change, Russia Rock Global Grain Trade

     04 December 2018 John Miller

     The US is still the world’s top grain exporter, but Russia is closing the gap, with India, France, Argentina and Canada following. US farmers...

     

258. The Trade Numerologist: Indonesia Seeks Balance in Foreign Investment

     27 November 2018 John Miller

     As Indonesia heads into a presidential election next April, the world’s fourth most populous country is attempting to attract foreign investment...

     

259. Escalating US China tensions and its impact on Hong Kong

     18 November 2018 John Miller

     A summary of Hong Kong's top sources of imports, exports and new trade deals with Australia

     

260. The Trade Numerologist: Colombia’s Dependence on Commodities

     13 November 2018 John Miller

     As Colombia recovers from bloody civil strife, contains a resurgent cocaine trade, and firms up its economy under a new president, it will need...

     

261. Trade Policy Insights: New TPP trade agreement – ‘No’ to Protectionism

     12 November 2018

     New TPP – the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) will enter into force December 30th. CPTPP has been...

     

262. Fraudulent ship registries fall under the radar

     08 November 2018 IHS Markit Maritime & Trade Expert

     When the International Maritime Organization’s (IMO’s) legal committee met for its 105th session in April, the subject of fraudulent ship registrations...

     

263. The Trade Numerologist: The Future of Plastics in the Age of Shale Gas

     05 November 2018 John Miller

     Trade and production of plastics are getting a boost from more gas drilling, even as the fuel-based material faces opposition because it’s so...

     

264. The Trade Numerologist: Fertilizer Fear: Has Industrial Ag Peaked?

     29 October 2018 John Miller

     The modern factory food industry which nourishes many of the world’s 7.6 billion people demands large supplies of wheat, corn, sugar and soybeans....

     

265. The Trade Numerologist: Amid Turmoil, a Polish Miracle, Made of Exports

     22 October 2018 John Miller

     Exit polls taken after the recent local elections in Poland suggest a moderate victory for the country’s embattled right-wing populist government....

     

266. Trade Policy Insights: US and Canada in USMCA – Dollars, Tonnes, and National Security Tariffs

     16 October 2018

     The dispute resolution process of the 1994 NAFTA will be preserved. Canada can challenge duties placed by US on Canadian exports on an expert...

     

267. The Trade Numerologist: The Brazilian Election’s Impact on Global Trade

     15 October 2018 John Miller

     If Jair Bolsonaro beats Fernando Haddad for Brazil’s presidency on Oct. 28, it’s expected to spur Brazilian exports at the expense of environmental...

     

268. The Trade Numerologist: Could Trade War Boost Global Mining?

     09 October 2018 John Miller

     The trade war between the US and China has cast a gloom over the global economy. Higher tariffs are expected to increase prices and dent demand...

     

269. Trade Policy Insights: EU – Japan eliminate tariffs – Global Impact Report

     03 October 2018

     The EU Japan Economic Partnership Agreement signed July 17, 2018. Expected to enter into force in 2019 and eliminate tariffs on most commodities....

     

270. A Sea Change: Plastics Pathway to Sustainability – October 2018

     01 October 2018

     In this webinar we will demonstrate how you can utilize the special study, “A Sea Change: Plastics Pathway to Sustainability”, to adjust your...

     

271. The Trade Numerologist: New NAFTA Deal Boosts US Auto, Farmers

     01 October 2018 John Miller

     NAFTA is alive. Canada and the Trump administration found common ground late Sunday night, signing a last-minute pact to revamp the North American...

     

272. The Trade Numerologist: New US Tariffs on Chinese Goods Hit Big Retail

     24 September 2018 John Miller

     All year, even as the Trump administration and Chinese leaders fired round after round of new tariffs at each other, both sides targeted mostly...

     

273. Trade Policy Insights: US China - Who is at risk? New Global Trade Rules?

     20 September 2018

     On Monday September 17th, the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) released a list of approximately $200 billion worth of...

     

274. The Trade Numerologist: After Hurricane Florence, a Need for Imports

     17 September 2018 John Miller

     As Hurricane Florence marched up the US East Coast this weekend, killing at least 16 people and wreaking havoc with unrelenting rain and flooding...

     

275. Trade Policy Insights: China Soybeans Challenge

     13 September 2018

     US Exports reached 1.5 trillion USD in 2017. China is the 3rd largest US Export market, by value, after Canada and Mexico. US Exports to China...

     

276. The Trade Numerologist: Apple Feels Heat of US-China Trade War

     10 September 2018 John Miller

     As we discussed last week, the car industry has taken big hits in the global trade war, which so far has targeted industrial sectors.

     

277. Trade Policy Insights: US Automotive Exports to EU – Further decrease?

     06 September 2018

     The US Mexico NAFTA and the EU Japan Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) could affect US Automotive Exports to EU

     

278. The Trade Numerologist: Global Auto in Thick of Trade War

     05 September 2018 John Miller

     The world’s brewing trade war could have a significant impact on automakers, parts manufacturers, logistics firms, and investors.

     

279. Trade Policy Insights: US Mexico renegotiated NAFTA - Automotive - Impact on Supply Chains

     30 August 2018

     The US administration is planning on sending the agreement to the US Congress on Friday. This puts pressure on Canada to make a decision.

     

280. The Trade Numerologist: What China’s “Made In 2025” Strategy Means for Global Trade

     27 August 2018 John Miller

     One of the key chess pieces is in the ongoing US-China trade spat is a classic Beijing industrial plan. In 2015, China released a new ten-year...

     

281. The Trade Numerologist: Opportunity and Crisis in Turkish Exports

     20 August 2018 John Miller

     The global trading infrastructure, from shipping lines to investment banks, turns its eyes to Turkey. The country of 80 million, a bedrock economy...

     

282. The Trade Numerologist: Trade Tariffs Steering Auto Parts

     13 August 2018 John Miller

     Supply chains are feeling the winds of trade wars.

     

283. The Trade Numerologist: Farmers Fight Trade War

     06 August 2018 John Miller

     As the European Union, China and the US dig in for a trade war, one global sector is bracing for its role as foot soldiers in the commercial...

     

284. The Trade Numerologist: EU, US Try for Trade Deal

     30 July 2018 John Miller

     Last week, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker flew to Washington to cool a brewing trans-Atlantic trade war.

     

285. The Trade Numerologist: Not Going Up in Smoke

     17 July 2018 John Miller

     For centuries tobacco drove global trade and helped shape the modern world.

     

286. The Trade Numerologist: Early Impacts of US-China Trade War

     09 July 2018 John Miller

     On Friday, US customs kicked off Washington’s latest line of trade defense against China, putting tariffs on $34 billion worth of products, including...

     

287. The Trade Numerologist: Why the G7 Can’t Save Global Trade

     02 July 2018 John Miller

     In 1975, with oil prices spiking and the US rocking from the shock of Watergate, the world’s six biggest industrialized democracies met in a...

     

288. The Trade Numerologist: Trade and the Mexican Election

     25 June 2018 John Miller

     There’s less than a week to go before Mexico’s July 1 presidential election, and polls indicate that the favorite is the leftwing populist Andrés...

     

289. The Trade Numerologist: Lessons from US-China trade war

     18 June 2018 John Miller

     This weekend, Beijing showed why, unlike some other countries, it likely has the upper hand in negotiating trade terms with the US.

     

290. The Trade Numerologist: Canadian Firms At Risk In US Trade Spat

     11 June 2018 John Miller

     The US-Canada trade feud underscores the risks faced by Canadian firms doing business with the US, especially carmakers and industrial suppliers....

     

291. The Trade Numerologist: US escalates trade disputes with allies

     04 June 2018 John Miller

     The US ramped up trade friction last week with key allies Canada, Mexico and the European Union, by implementing proposed metal tariffs, underscoring...

     

292. Is global meat trade overdone?

     29 May 2018 John Miller

     One of the tenets of 21st century globalization has been that Africa, Asia and Latin America’s new middle classes will want and pay for a high-protein...

     

293. EU Faces Tough Decisions On Iran Trade

     18 May 2018 John Miller

     President Trump’s decision to pull out of the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran and reimpose sanctions is likely to accelerate Tehran nation’s turn...

     

294. The Trade Numerologist: The South Korean Miracle

     14 May 2018 John Miller

     While China has turned into the world’s top exporter in the new century, and accumulated the accompanying riches and status, the second biggest...

     

295. The Trade Numerologist: The Bilateral Trade Deal Tango

     07 May 2018 John Miller

     With multilateral trade treaties, from the European Union to the Trans-Pacific Partnership, taking hits from protectionist politicians this year...

     

296. The Trade Numerologist: The future of fish

     30 April 2018 John Miller

     The world’s appetite for fish has boomed prodigiously over the past 30 years, and is expected to keep expanding.

     

297. The Trade Numerologist: The Optimistic Case for Global Trade

     23 April 2018

     We’ve spent a lot of time in this space of late talking about tariffs, protectionism, the weakening of trade deals and the World Trade Organization...

     

298. The Trade Numerologist: Back To The TPP - Trade’s Great Game

     16 April 2018 John Miller

     With trade tensions between China and the US threatening American exports, President Trump last week floated an idea. Maybe, he said, the US...

     

299. The Trade Numerologist: Who gets hurt in a US-China trade war

     09 April 2018 John Miller

     As we’ve been documenting in this space, the prospect of a U.S.-China trade war has rattled world markets, shipping lines and commerce officials...

     

300. The Trade Numerologist: Discord in (Real) Apple Markets

     02 April 2018 John Miller

     As it had threatened, China has imposed new import duties on $3 billion worth of U.S. imports, including a 15% tariff on fruit, to retaliate...

     

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