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Exit polls of the regional election in Umbria, held on 27
October, point to a decisive victory for the right-wing candidate
Donatella Tesei, who is backed by the anti-immigrant League party
(Lega), the far-right Brothers of Italy (Fratelli d'Italia), and
the center-right Forza Italia. With nearly 60% of the votes, Tesei
decisively defeated her center-left rival Vincenzo Bianconi, leader
of a civic alliance backed by the Democratic Party (Partito
Democratico: PD) and the Five Star Movement (Movimento Cinque
Stelle: M5S).
Tesei's victory marks the first time in the postwar period that
a candidate from the right has won power in Umbria, a traditional
stronghold of Italy's left. The Lega-led coalition's victory
returns the momentum to its leader Matteo Salvini, who pulled the
plug on the previous government in anticipation of early elections.
Instead, Lega's previous coalition partner, M5S, allied with PD to
form the second government led by Prime Minister Giuseppe
Conte.
Significance
The Lega-led coalition's victory in Umbria reflects the
continued rightward shift in public opinion even in traditionally
left-wing strongholds. It also serves as an important indicator for
upcoming regional elections in Calabria (December) and
Emilia-Romagna (January).
The election in Emilia-Romagna is especially pivotal given that
it is also a stronghold of the Italian left and four-times more
populous than Umbria. The prospective loss of Emilia-Romagna would
further divide the already fragile government coalition, prompting
both M5S and PD to seriously reconsider the utility of their
alliance.
Key here will be whether the leadership of both parties
interpret such losses as voters rejecting their untypical alliance.
This would likely preclude any substantial policy initiatives as
both PD and M5S would increasingly prioritize early electioneering
over policymaking. Although such setbacks would be unlikely to
trigger an early election, which would probably favor Lega,
government instability would increase as more voices within M5S
would call for early elections, seeing it as an opportunity to
remove the current leadership.
Posted 01 November 2019 by Dijedon Imeri, Senior Analyst, Country Risk, Economics & Country Risk, IHS Markit
