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ISMA-OSAC Latin America Regional Conference March 2019

26 February 2019 Carlos Caicedo

On March 4th I will join a panel of Latin American experts at the 28th ISMA-OSAC joint conference in Buenos Aires, Argentina.

The panel will cover current security risks at regional level with some particular focus on Mexico, Colombia and Central America. If you are going to be at the event, please do join the session, which starts at 11am. Some of the issues I will address:

Mexico

  • How viable are Mexican president Andrés Manuel López Obrador's (AMLO) national security strategies? How will the drug cartels react?
  • AMLO's oil pipeline theft reduction plan has caused nationwide gasoline shortages, what other industries could be in line for similar security operations? How will that impact on the Mexican operational environment? What would be a worst-case scenario for the tourism industry?

CENTAM

  • Crime and homicide are major issues of concern for public safety and private sector security in the region. Most leaders in the region are pledging a "hardline" approach to confronting violent gangs and other organized crime groups- a strategy that has failed in the past. What can we expect this time?
  • What is the outlook for Guatemala (elections due) , El Salvador and Nicaragua

Colombia

  • President Duque recently outlined a national security and counter-terrorism plan. He is favoring a hardline approach to the ELN, FARC dissidents, and armed criminal organizations. Where are the plan's prospects and in what specific regions do we expect violence and terrorism to increase?
  • Overall, should we expect Colombia's operational environment to improve or deteriorate?

Brazil

  • Bolsonaro hardline approach to crime and his justice and public security minister Sergio Moro recently proposed anti-crime legislation in Congress, what will be the implications of that?
  • The crime and violence perpetrated by gangs in Ceará state in January in response to prison policy changes are indicative of criminal gangs' power to cause major interruptions and public safety concerns. Do we expect similar surge in criminality elsewhere in Brazil?

Posted 26 February 2019 by Carlos Caicedo, Senior Principal Analyst, Country Risk – Americas, IHS Markit

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