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Mean export distance increased by 9.5% over the period
2000-19, from 4,464 kilometers in 2000 to 4,886 kilometers in
2019
Mean export distance globally shows an upward trend
within the analyzed period with a visibly negative impact of global
crises
Mean export distance varies significantly between
countries; from 984 kilometers for Bosnia & Herzegovina to
15,867kilometers for Cocos Islands
In Asia, over the period 2000-19 mean export distance
increased significantly in Vietnam (by 975 km) and in China
mainland (by 851 km) while it decreased in most of the countries of
South, Southeast and East Asia which could be indicative of the
emergence of regional value-added chain with a hub in China
mainland
In Europe the changes were not drastic (apart from
Belarus); in North America increases in the mean export distance
were delicate for the US and much more significant for both Mexico
and Canada
Overall, the largest increases in the mean export
distance were observed in South American economies, especially for
Brazil, Argentina, and Chile with the largest mean
distance
Mean export distance
In the gravity approach, trade intensity is proportional to the
size of trade partners and inversely proportional to the distance.
Trade gravity is one of the most robust and established
relationships in economics in general.
In the present analysis, we have combined the GTA Forecasting
historical trade data over the period 2000-19 with the matrix of
bilateral distances between countries using the "as the crow flies"
approach between their capital cities and weighted distance using
the distance between the three largest cities by the population of
the reporter and partner.
Knowing the intensity of trade and the structure of trade
relations by country, we have calculated the mean export distance
(in kilometers) for individual reporters in our database as an
export-weighted mean, analyzed the patterns and their evolution
over time.
Mean export distance is a function of:
The location of an economy (its absolute
centrality/peripherality)
The location of a given economy and its position in the
hierarchy of global value chains
The overall extent of openness of a given economy -
participation in globalization
Formation of regional trade agreements
From a business perspective, the distance of trade together with
the nature of the exported product has an impact on the choice of
means of transport.
The variation in mean export distance and its
changes
Mean export distance increased by 9.5% over the period 2000-19
from 4,464 kilometers in 2000 to 4,886 kilometers in 2019. An
average mean export distance globally shows an upward trend within
the analyzed period with a visibly negative impact of global
crises.
Overall mean export distance differs significantly between
countries. It varies from 984 km for Bosnia & Herzegovina,
1,086 km for Belarus, 1,272 for Slovenia, 1,340 km for Croatia up
to 15,867 km for Cocos Islands, 14,095 for Chile, and 12,871 for
Tokelau. In general, the distance is the lowest for small economies
in Europe and the largest for peripherally located Pacific Ocean
(in particular island states in Polynesia and Micronesia) and South
America states. Thus, to a substantial extent, reflects the
distribution of landmass between the northern and southern
hemisphere and the size of states.
The mean export distance globally has been significantly
affected by one key factor - the unprecedented growth of China
(mainland) and thus the shift of locus in global economic activity
in particular in the manufacturing towards East and Southeast Asia,
in general, observed over the last four decades.
The change in the mean export distance in the analyzed period
2000-19 brings interesting results from a regional perspective.
In Asia mean export distance increased significantly in Vietnam
(by 975 km) and in China mainland (by 851 km). The mean export
distance decreased, however, in all surrounding states. South
American economies significantly increased their mean export
distance and thus participation in globalization. The mean export
distance decreased significantly in most of Sub-Saharan Africa,
across Western and South Asia and Australia. The partial
transformation in Russia opened the country to more global trade.
In Europe and the US, in turn, the mean export distance has not
changed significantly. It increased to a larger extent in Mexico
and Canada, both part of USMCA (successor to NAFTA). The largest
increase in mean export distance over the observed period applies
to Western Sahara in the Maghreb region of Northern Africa.
Taking into account the size of exports in 2019 and focusing on
the top 30 economies of the world we can plot the following graph
showing the change in mean export distance over the analyzed period
2000-19 (in kilometers) as well as the growth of exports (in %)
over the analyzed period.
In terms of the dynamic of growth in exports, three countries
stand out: China, India, and Poland. In terms of the increase in
the mean export distance, it's Brazil. Once again, we see that the
Chinese and Vietnamese mean export distance increased while it
decreased in most large economies of the region of Eastern,
Southeastern, and South Asia as well as Australia. It could be
indicative of the development of the regional value chain with
China mainland as a hub.
