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Indicators track Iranian threat to Strait of Hormuz shipping
03 August 2018Jane's Editorial Staff
Any Iranian attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz to commercial
shipping is a low-probability, high-impact scenario with global
ramifications. As Iran-US tensions heighten ahead of Washington's
reimposition of sanctions on Tehran from 6 August, Jeremy
Binnie , Reed Foster , and Nazanin Soroush
analyse the indicators of conflict in the Strait and the likely
trajectory of any confrontation.
Key Points
Iran is highly unlikely to seek to close the Strait of Hormuz,
but there are credible escalation pathways that could increase the
likelihood of such action in the 12-month outlook.
Iran has the military capabilities to credibly threaten
shipping in the waterway, and will do so if the leadership believes
that it faces an imminent, existential threat.
Open conflict between Iran and the US and its allies in the
region would lead to military losses for all participants and would
negatively affect the global economy.
A war of words between Washington and Tehran has again focused
international attention on Iran's ability to threaten freedom of
movement through the economically vital Strait of Hormuz. Iranian
President Hassan Rouhani on 3 July stated that the US policy of
halting Iran's oil exports would mean that the region's oil would
not be exported. Two days later, Major-General Mohammad Ali Jafari,
the commander of Iran's Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC),
said that the Strait of Hormuz was either for "all" or for
"no-one".
Nonetheless, Iranian action to close the Strait of Hormuz
remains highly unlikely. Jane's assesses that the Iranian
threats were primarily intended to put pressure on the remaining
signatories to the Iran nuclear agreement known as the Joint
Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) - France, China, Germany,
Russia, and the United Kingdom - to compensate Iran for its
continued nuclear compliance.
The United States unilaterally withdrew from the nuclear
agreement on 8 May and re-imposed powerful extra-territorial
sanctions intended to prevent other states from doing business with
Iran. US President Donald Trump has pursued a policy of putting
pressure on Iran, tweeting on 23 July that Iran risked
"consequences the likes of which few throughout history have ever
suffered before", if it threatened the US again.
Although it is likely that some of its claims are inflated, Iran
does have the military capability to threaten shipping in the
waterway. Similarly, the US has responded by adjusting the
composition and capabilities of forces to mitigate such threats. An
Iranian attempt to close the Strait would therefore be at high risk
of sparking a military conflict between the two sides - a scenario
that would have global ramifications.
Significance of the Strait
IHS Markit Maritime & Trade data make clear the Strait's
importance. Between 1 July 2017 and 30 June 2018, IHS Markit
Maritime & Trade AISLive data recorded 42,544 transits by
tankers, bulk carriers, and dry cargo or passenger vessels through
the Strait.
This figure only includes vessels above 300 gross tonnes and
does not include other classes, such as fishing vessels and
offshore vessels. The total gross tonnage (GT) of the vessels
recorded transiting the Strait during this period was 2.42
billion.
This is an extract from an article that first appeared in Jane's
Intelligence Review.
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