Obtain the data you need to make the most informed decisions by accessing our extensive portfolio of information, analytics, and expertise. Sign in to the product or service center of your choice.
On 26 February, India's Foreign Affairs Secretary Vijay Gokhale
announced that 12 Indian Air Force (IAF) Mirage 2000 fighter jets
had attacked an alleged Jaish-e-Muhammad (JeM) militant base near
Balakot in Pakistan's Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. Indian media
quoted anonymous IAF sources as saying that 300 militants were
killed in the attack, including senior commanders of the group. JeM
claimed responsibility for the 14 February suicide vehicle-borne
improvised explosive device (SVBIED) attack in India's Jammu and
Kashmir state, which killed at least 40 Indian soldiers, triggering
domestic demands in India for a military response against Pakistan.
The Pakistani military confirmed that an airstrike took place but
denied that it resulted in any damage to infrastructure or loss of
life, and claimed that the IAF jets were forced to flee after the
Pakistan Air Force scrambled F-16 jets.
Our Take
Unlike the 2016 cross-border raid by the Indian military against
suspected separatist militant bases in Pakistan-administered
Kashmir, the IAF airstrike appears to have taken place inside
Pakistani territory, more than 60 kilometers from the Line of
Control (LoC) in disputed Kashmir. This will increase domestic
pressure on Pakistan to demonstrate its capability to respond
militarily, thus raising the likelihood of further incidents along
the LoC and along the northern border in Punjab province.
However, the 2016 Indian raid notably marked the beginning of
military de-escalation following an escalation in war rhetoric in
both countries at the time. Although we assess that interstate war
risks have marginally increased, escalation to a broader conflict
remains a low-probability scenario.
The overwhelming preference of both sides is to avoid a very
high-risk and mutually damaging broader military confrontation. In
this context, the IAF raid satisfies the Indian government's need
to demonstrate a robust response ahead of elections and creates
political space for a gradual military de-escalation. India will
claim the successful targeting of a militant camp in Pakistani
territory, while Pakistan will deny that the raid achieved anything
and downplay the impact. Instead, the political dispute between
India and Pakistan will probably involve India's pursuit of an
economic escalation to incentivize Pakistan to take more meaningful
action against anti-India militant groups in Pakistani-controlled
territory. Conversely, Pakistani escalation involving military
action beyond cross-border exchanges of fire would encourage
further airstrikes by India and increase the likelihood of
unintended military escalation, further raising interstate war
risks.
Posted 26 February 2019 by Asad Ali, Senior Analyst – Asia Pacific, Country Risk & FCM, IHS Markit and
Deepa Kumar, Senior Analyst – Asia-Pacific Country Risk, IHS Markit
