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Output both in Beirut and across the rest of the Lebanon falls
drastically following tragic explosion
Deterioration in demand conditions accelerates across the
country
Reduced port capacity severely hampers exports
The latest release of the BLOM Lebanon PMI® pointed to a
substantial contraction in output across the private sector midway
through the third quarter. The deterioration followed the tragic
explosion at the Port of Beirut on 4th August and came at a time
when the country was already grappling with a severe liquidity
crisis and the economic fallout from the coronavirus disease 2019
(COVID-19) pandemic. Although softer than at the height of the
COVID-19 crisis, the rate of decline in activity accelerated to the
fastest for three months, reversing the trend towards stabilisation
seen in May, June and July.
However, it should be noted that even the steep downturn
signalled likely understates the disruption caused by the
explosion, as the response rate for the survey was lower than usual
during August, with some businesses temporarily closed due to
damage caused by the explosion. The latest results therefore do not
include responses from many of those firms worst affected by the
tragedy.
Impact spreads beyond the capital
To examine the wider impact of the Beirut explosion, we can
compare PMI results from panellists operating both inside and
outside the capital. Anecdotal evidence from the latest survey
suggested that many businesses within Beirut faced disruption
related to the explosion. Consequently, output at private sector
firms within the city fell sharply, with the rate of contraction
accelerating to the quickest since April, when activity was heavily
restricted by measures designed to stem the spread of COVID-19.
However, PMI data also indicated a quicker rate of decline in
output across other Lebanese regions during August. Combined data
for all Lebanese regions excluding Beirut pointed to the sharpest
contraction in business activity outside the capital since May.
The trend in output was mirrored by new orders, with demand
conditions deteriorating at a sharper pace both inside and outside
Beirut. This suggests that damage from the explosion and the
resulting business closures supressed demand throughout Lebanon,
coherent with the integral role that the capital plays in the wider
economy.
Exports hindered by reduced port capacity, but input
price inflation softens
The widespread effect of the port explosion can also be seen
clearly when looking at PMI export data for August. New orders from
abroad fell at the quickest pace for three months and sharply
overall. Although slightly faster within the capital city, rates of
decline both inside and outside Beirut accelerated drastically from
July. A possible explanation is that private sector firms were
unable to fulfil orders amid reduced capacity at the country's
largest port.
The damage inflicted on one of Lebanon's main locations for
imports has driven fears over food security and rising prices.
However, the latest PMI data showed little sign of any such
problems. In fact, input prices increased at the softest rate for
ten months, with no panellists mentioning higher food costs.
Moreover, the slowdown in input price inflation was broad-based at
the region level.
The conclusions drawn for these results should, however, be
taken with some caution. Increased food prices may take time to
filter through into business costs due to pre-arranged prices for
inputs. The effects of any shortages on input prices will likely be
captured by PMI data in the months ahead.
The BLOM Lebanon PMI® for September is scheduled for release on
5th October 2020.
Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) data are compiled by IHS Markit for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.
