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Our risk team took a look at the impact of COVID-19 on protest
and riot risks globally. We considered the COVID-19 virus's impact
on existing grievances and conflicts, as well as its impact on
those triggered by the pandemic.
Lockdowns in Asia have been enforced strictly
by security forces, particularly in South Asia. Post-peak debate
around state responses and availability of financial support will
likely trigger anti-government sentiment and protests and riots
across South Asia and in Indonesia and Papua New Guinea.
In Europe protests and riots will be
negligible in the immediate term given lockdown conditions.
However, localized short lived civil unrest caused by a lack of
access to basic goods is a low-level risk. Longer term economically
motivated anti-government protests are probable across the wider
region if economic recovery is slow and uneven.
There is a high risk of panic-buying degenerating into looting
across Latin America. Small outbreaks of violent
confrontations between security forces and local residents refusing
to follow government social distancing guidelines are likely in
most countries.
There is a low risk of protests and riots in urban areas across
the MENA region, particularly in key outbreak
countries such as Iran. However, remote areas of Tunisia, Lebanon,
and Iraq are especially vulnerable to this risk due to very low
government oversight. Longer term the most vulnerable countries for
destabilizing unrest are Iran, Algeria, and Tunisia with
anti-Netanyahu protests in Israel likely in the aftermath of the
outbreak.
Major social unrest in Sub-Saharan Africa
would most likely take the form of rioting and looting in densely
populated urban areas. Individuals and businesses linked to Asian
or European descent and wealthier nationals or diaspora returnees
are at risk of harassment, theft, and looting. Post-pandemic risks
of larger outbreaks of unrest will be higher in countries with
disputed electoral processes like Guinea, Malawi, Ethiopia, Côte
d'Ivoire and Burkina Faso.
A country-by-country review with additional details is available
for
purchase.
Posted 16 April 2020 by James Petretta, Country Risk Director, Economics & Country Risk, S&P Global Market Intelligence
