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Hong Kong dividend index points under China's regulatory reset

17 November 2021 Maojun Ye Ruiying Zhao Yang Yang

Key Implications

• As waves of regulatory reform of mainland China swept through Hang Seng Index (HSI), market concerns are reflected in the downward trending index price since October, contrary to the upbeat dividend yield.

• The dividend index points (DIPs) of HSI are expected to increase from 708.5 in 2021 to 747.8 in 2022, representing a 5.6% year-on-year (y/y) growth.

• The Banking sector, which has seen regulatory overhaul in capital reserve and deposit rates to improve profitability and liquidity this year, is expected to continue to dominate the dividend payments in the market, contributing 43.7% of the total DIPs for 2022, followed by the Real Estate, Insurance, and Energy sectors.

• Despite concerns over the tightening regulations on China's technology giants (Alibaba, Meituan, and Tencent), the DIPs of Hang Seng Tech Index are expected to increase from 24.8 in 2021 to 26.7 in 2022, representing a 7.7% y/y growth, as the top dividend contributors (Lenovo, Haier Smart, and ASM Pacific Technology) are mostly immune from the regulatory changes.

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