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In our Q1 2021 forecast round, we raised our global healthcare
spending forecast for 2021, as the resurgence in COVID-19
infections triggered additional spending. Global healthcare
spending in 2021 is now forecast to go up to USD9.23 billion, up
from a previous forecast of USD9.14 billion. But risks in the
market access space, as measured by our proprietary MARS ratings
which are released at the same time as our forecasts, remain
elevated due to policy developments and market uncertainties
associated with the pandemic.
Key forecast changes made in January 2021 include:
The Japanese government has set out a record draft
general-account budget of USD320 billion for FY 2021. We have hence
raised Japan's total healthcare spending growth to 4.1% and 2.6% in
2021-2022, up from 2.5% and 2.6% in previous forecast.
The surge in hospitalizations in the United Kingdom and
indications in the spending review for 2021 that healthcare and
life sciences research will receive additional funding have led us
to raise UK's health spending growth to 4% for 2022, up from
previous forecast of 2.8%.
Italy's coalition government has approved a EUR20 billion
recovery package for the healthcare sector. We have hence raised
our forecasts for health spending growth to 3.5%, 2.5% and 2% in
2021-2023, up from previous forecasts of 1% 0.1% and 0.4%.
We have also made the following adjustments for growth in
health expenditure and/or pharma sales:
Health expenditure growth in France raised to 5%, up from
previous forecast of 3.5% for 2021, while growth in pharma sales
lowered to 2.3%, down from previous forecast of 2.6%;
Health expenditure growth in Sweden raised to 5.1% in 2021, up
from previous forecast of 4.5%, while growth lowered to 4% in 2022,
down from previous forecast of 5%.
Ireland's growth in pharma sales raised to 7.5% and 5% for 2020
and 2021, up from previous forecasts of 0.4% and 4%.
In terms of global market access risk, unfavorable developments
are mainly reflected in the increased risk rating of our event
driven measures, as well as a higher economic, business and
political risk.
Key negative event driven measures in Q4 2020 included -
among others:
Spain's major changes to its therapeutics positioning reports
(IPTs) involving the requirement of additional economic evaluation
data;
Japan's first out-of-cycle drug price revision scheduled for
FY2021;
United States' potential reform to drug pricing, potentially
allowing Medicare to negotiate drug prices for Part D and implement
international reference pricing to cap prices; and
Poland's latest pricing and reimbursement reform, involving a
restriction of access to the "emergency access" system.
Our Healthcare and
pharmaceutical forecasts provide quarterly updated
history data and 10-year forecasts for 70 countries, including
healthcare expenditure, pharmaceutical sales, pharmaceutical trade,
national income account data and demographics. Data can be accessed
through the searchable Data Browser, currently providing 11,866
data series.
Our Market Access Risk Scores
(MARS) are designed to compare and contrast market access
climate in 75 countries around the world. The system - under which
qualitative and quantitative factors which affect market access are
separately rated in each country - provides a comprehensive picture
of the quality of conditions and the level of stability of the
market access environment encountered by pharmaceutical companies
in each country.
