Obtain the data you need to make the most informed decisions by accessing our extensive portfolio of information, analytics, and expertise. Sign in to the product or service center of your choice.
<span/>Chronic delays in
numerous new power generation projects in Vietnam will likely cause
severe power shortages over the next five years. In response to the
new challenges, the Vietnamese government decided to increase
renewable power to meet the rising demand and to reduce its
reliance on coal. Against a backdrop of grid network overloads,
enhancing the current grid capability becomes the key to bolstering
Vietnam's fuel mix target.
Vietnam's upcoming Power Development Plan 8 (PDP 8) will
prioritize grid projects, with the objective of developing more
renewable energy and integrating them into the power
system. The revised PDP 7 aimed to add 43
GW coal power capacity between 2017 and 2030; however, as of May
2020, about 21 GW (48.9%) of capacity is likely to be suspended or
cancelled. The upcoming PDP 8 represents a new strategy that shifts
the focus toward expanding renewable energy sources.
Developing high-voltage transmission lines connecting
North, Central, and South Vietnam is critical to improving the
country's power supply-demand balance. New transmission
lines will bring gas-fired power from the central and southern
regions to the northern region, helping to lower North Vietnam's
currently heavy dependence on coal and hydroelectric power. Based
on the IHS Markit model, the North-Central transmission line
capacity must reach 6,000 MW by 2030 to limit coal share in the
generation mix to below 45%.
Increasing renewables penetration necessitates major
upgrading of the grid network. An increasing number of
transmission lines and substations in the southern region are
operating at full load or are even overloaded, resulting
curtailment of renewable output. Achieving Vietnam's new goal of
having 15-20% of total power generation come from renewable
energy—mostly intermittent solar and wind sources—by 2030
will also depend heavily on construction of an enhanced nationwide
grid network.
Figure 1: Grid capability key to achieving Vietnam's energy
fuel mix target
Opportunities for private investors to invest in grid
projects are opening. A pilot project allowing a private
company to build a substation and transmission lines was approved
in March 2020. However, the pilot project cannot be immediately
replicated by other private companies without major change in
Vietnam's current public-private partnership (PPP) law.
IHS Markit experts are available for consultation on the
industries and subjects they specialize in. Meetings are virtual
and can be tailored to focus on your areas of inquiry. Book in a
consultation with Cecillia Zheng.
Cecillia Zheng is an associate director for the Gas,
Power and Energy Futures team at IHS Markit.
