Global Sovereign Risk Snapshot Q4 2016

27 Mar 2017 Paul Hunt

Macro view: Q4 2016

  • Commodity-related downgrades continue to ease, but many countries are not yet out of the woods
  • The slow rehabilitation of ratings for European peripherals continues
  • Eastern Europe, Jamaica and Israel remain bright spots in their respective regions

    Regional view: Q4 2016

    The global balance of ratings actions turned slightly net positive in the fourth quarter 2016 at 25 upgrades to 20 downgrades -- the first time it has been net positive in more than two years since the start of the slide in commodities prices. Our service upgraded Cypress and Iceland and downgraded Barbados and the Republic of Congo.

    Outlook

    The overhang in financial pressure from the collapse in commodity prices continues to pressure sovereign risk ratings in regions dependent on commodities:

    • Latin America: 11 negative outlooks to 2 positive
    • Sub-Saharan Africa: 11 negative outlooks to 1 positive
    • Middle East and North Africa: 8 negative outlooks to 1 positive

      The Sovereign Risk Service from IHS Markit gauges short- and medium-term risk for 206 countries worldwide. It uses transparent sovereign risk ratings when assessing creditworthiness and trade credit risk and enables the comparison of IHS Markit ratings to the ratings of other agencies. For more insights from the Sovereign Risk Service, click here or contact Paul Hunt.

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      Paul Hunt, Director, Global Economics
      Tel: +1 202 481 3737
      paul.hunt@ihsmarkit.com

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