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Global slowdown gathers pace at start of 2019

08 February 2019 Chris Williamson

The following is an extract from IHS Markit's monthly PMI overview presentation. For the full report please click on the link at the bottom of the article.

Global PMI starts 2019 at 28-month low

The global economy started 2019 with the weakest expansion since September 2016. The JPMorgan Global PMI, compiled by IHS Markit, hit a 28-month low of 52.1, down from 52.7 in December, extending a slowdown that had been evident throughout 2018 into the new year. Manufacturing led the slowdown, with factory output growth easing to a 31-month low and slipping closer to stagnation amid an increased rate of decline in worldwide export volumes. However, the service sector likewise reported a weaker rate of expansion, showing the smallest gain since September 2016 as the slowdown broadened out and uncertainty spiked higher.

Other indicators showed new orders rising at the weakest rate since July 2016 and a second successive marginal decline in backlogs of work. Job creation hit a 21-month low as hiring slowed in response to the weakened order book trend. Optimism towards the year ahead meanwhile regained some ground from December's two-and-a-half year low, but remained subdued by recent standards.

Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist, IHS Markit
Tel: +44 207 260 2329

© 2019, IHS Markit Inc. All rights reserved. Reproduction in whole or in part without permission is prohibited.

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Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) data are compiled by IHS Markit for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.

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