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Global growth outlook blighted by weak trade flows

12 December 2018 Chris Williamson

The following is an extract from IHS Markit's monthly PMI overview presentation. For the full report please click on the link at the bottom of the article.

Global PMI subdued amid smallest rise in orders for two years

The latest business surveys showed worldwide output rising further mid-way through the fourth quarter, but falling trade flows continued to subdue the overall pace of expansion. Although global business activity grew at a marginally improved pace for a second successive month in November, according to the latest JPMorgan PMI, the expansion was one of the weakest seen over the past two years. The Global Composite PMI, compiled by IHS Markit, rose from 53.0 in October to a three-month high of 53.2.

Growth is also likely to soften again in coming months: sentiment about the year ahead and inflows of new work both deteriorated to the worst recorded for just over two years. The survey data showed that subdued manufacturing growth and a further marginal drop in global exports acted as a drag on the global economy growth. Service sector growth accelerated, led by a stronger emerging market performance, which helped offset a slower rate of developed world expansion.

Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist, IHS Markit
Tel: +44 207 260 2329
chris.williamson@ihsmarkit.com

© 2018, IHS Markit Inc. All rights reserved. Reproduction in whole or in part without permission is prohibited.

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Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) data are compiled by IHS Markit for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.

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