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The global bus market (>6t, excluding motor homes) will grow
14% y/y in 2021, after the tremendous decline it had witnessed in
2020 (down 35% y/y to 255,000 units). Daily commuting declined as
people worked primarily from home and some avoided public transport
fearing infection in crowded spaces. City Bus figures for 2020 are
expected to have declined 33% y/y because of this reason. Coaches
declined even further as tourism season was short, long-distance
line services were partly suspended and travel restrictions kept
people at home or changed to individual transport. Looking at
regional developments, Europe and North America declined 16% y/y,
Japan/Korea, South America, Greater China, and Middle East &
Africa went down 31-36% y/y, and a dramatic 62% y/y downturn was
seen in South Asia. Developments in buses are more aligned across
the regions than trucks and China is in sync with the other regions
for the general upside/downside trends.
As vaccinations have started, countries are expected to exit
lockdowns over spring and summer and demand for bus services is
expected to increase again. The global bus market is forecast to
rise by 19% y/y to 280,000 units. Regions that experienced the
highest declines in 2020 will see the biggest growth rates in 2021.
Overall, the volume will still be down by 23% y/y on the 2019
figures.
The recovery will take a couple of years as the behaviors we
have adopted during the pandemic will take time to change and we
have to re-gain our sense of safety when commuting on city buses or
travelling on long distance coaches. By 2023, the market will outdo
2019 levels and take another four years to cross the former peaks
of 400,000 units.
In Europe, several markets (Czech Republic, Germany,
Netherlands, Sweden, Turkey) showed improvement over 2019
confirming that tenders agreed upon before the health crisis were
delivered and will continue to do so in the current year. City
buses hold up well during 2020, only declining 7% y/y and will grow
at 10% annually from 2021 to 2023 as replacement with electric
vehicles is ongoing as set by the EU Clean Vehicles Directive.
Coaches saw a significant drop in 2020 (down 36% y/y) and will gain
in 2021 especially as the segment is increasing in Russia and
Turkey.
In China, bus demand was driven over the past years by New
Energy Vehicle (NEV) subsidies. In 2019, bus sales were hurt by the
NEV subsidy reduction and the weakening economy. Another drop of
27% y/y to 104,00 units is expected for 2020 (final numbers will be
available in our Q2 release), before recovery starts with 11% y/y
in 2021 fostered by the government's 2021-35 NEV industry
development plan issued in late 2020. The plan urges NEV
penetration in the public transport sector to reach 80% in key
regions starting in 2021 and 100% across the nation by 2035.
The South Asian region with its biggest market India has been
the most negatively impacted country and region in 2020, down 67%
y/y and 62% y/y respectively, as state governments across India had
to stop public transport in order to mitigate the spread. For
almost an entire quarter of the year, buses were not on Indian
roads. For 2020, the bus market in India is estimated at 19,000
units while in 2021, it will reach 27,700 units. Further increases
are expected as the Indian government sets up public transport
initiatives to renew and modernize the fleet and sets up more Bus
Rapid Transport (BRT) corridors.
Around 80% of the North American (US & Canada) bus market
consists of the school bus segment, while city buses only take 15%
and coaches 5%. All segments declined in 2020 and the market is
expected to increase by 10% y/y in 2021. School buses should
recover with the end of home schooling in the summer and register
31,500 units. City buses and coaches will take longer as people
move outside of cities and plan to do more working from home than
pre-pandemic.
For South America, we expect a recovery to 2018 levels for this
year (30,500 units) and a 25% increase in 2022 as the major country
in the region (Brazil) is expected to adopt Euro VI in 2023.
Overall, these demand figures also drive the production of buses
around the globe and we expect the bus output to increase from
246,000 units in 2020 to 285,000 units in 2021 (up 16% y/y) and to
337,000 units in 2022 (up 18% y/y). In the following years, bus
production will grow at a slower rate and reach its former peak of
2016 in 2028 (422,000 units).
In this period, we will also see the penetration of electric and
hydrogen buses rise: 25% of the global bus production will be
electric, 3% will use hydrogen, 4% natural gas and 63% will remain
Diesel. In China, nearly two thirds of the output will feature an
alternative driveline.
Posted 11 February 2021 by Christiane Stein, Principal Research Analyst, Global Heavy Truck Research