Obtain the data you need to make the most informed decisions by accessing our extensive portfolio of information, analytics, and expertise. Sign in to the product or service center of your choice.
Geopolitics of COVID-19 Vaccine Campaigns: Shared challenges
09 March 2021Lindsay Newman, Ph.D.
For the last year all eyes have been focused on the worldwide
research and development race with one clear goal in mind: ending
the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Entering 2021, multiple
vaccines targeting COVID-19 are available for deployment with
dozens more in a pipeline of clinical trials.
Governments now face the monumental task of vaccinating their
populations at a scale and pace to drive forward their public
health and economic recoveries. The first step for all nations is
securing (adequate) vaccine supply to drive
herd immunity levels.
Globally, advanced purchase agreements have been signed for a
reported 9.59 billion vaccine doses. By mid-February, according
to IHS Markit's COVID-19 vaccines advanced purchase agreements
tracker, the United States alone had contracted for more than
1.2 billion doses; good news for the roughly 210 million adults in
the US.
Elsewhere,
fiscal constraints imposed by managing pandemic economies over
the last year mean that not every country will be able to secure
coverage for their entire adult populations. Pooled procurement
methods like the WHO's COVID-19 Vaccine Global Access Facility
(COVAX) framework have stepped in to alleviate this pressure, but
with it initially promising to provide vaccines for up to 20% of
participating country's populations, it is unlikely to be
enough to achieve domestic herd immunity.
Looking ahead, beyond the clinical news and announced advance
purchase agreements (APAs), it turns out that despite divergences
around access, countries are facing a set of shared geopolitical
challenges in administering their vaccine campaigns:
Reliance on external sources of vaccine
supply
Thus far, vaccines developed in only a small number of countries
have received some form of regulatory approval allowing for
distribution. This suggests that into 2021, a wide number of
countries will likely continue to depend on securing access to
externally-developed (and in many cases externally-produced)
vaccines. As we are already seeing, countries are looking to offset
this risk by accessing vaccines from diverse sources - the US has
APAs with six vaccine developers, both the United Kingdom and the
European Union have signed deals with eight firms. Other countries
are likely to become overly-reliant on narrower supply chains -
opening the door for "
vaccine diplomacy."
Vaccine producers leveraging "vaccine
diplomacy"
Countries that have invested in vaccine innovation and
production are now jockeying to be pivotal suppliers to vaccine
importers as an expression of their soft power. Leading the news on
vaccine bedfellows has been China's signage of bilateral APAs to
deliver its vaccines across Africa (including in Equatorial Guinea,
Senegal), Latin America (including Chile, Peru), Europe (including
Ukraine, Serbia) and the Middle East (including Egypt, Morocco).
With its
Vaccine Maitri initiative, India has donated
millions of its Covishield within its neighborhood "in keeping
with India's stated commitment to use India's vaccine production
and delivery capacity to help all of humanity fight the COVID
pandemic."
Gap between sufficient vaccine supply and successful
rollout
Securing supply agreements is a necessary but not sufficient
condition to ensure an effective domestic vaccine rollout.
Countries with leading APA numbers are struggling under
a host of logistical and operational constraints to actually
get jabs into arms. In the US, for example, coordination has been
uneven between the federal government and distribution points at
the state level, even as the pace of vaccinations has ramped-up. At
the start of February, only a handful of states and territories had
vaccinated
double digit proportions of their populations. President Joseph
Biden's National Strategy for COVID-19
Response and Pandemic Preparedness calls for additional funding
and fair compensation for state and local governments along with
clearer tracking and projections around vaccine availability to
ease the US implementation bottlenecks.
Protracted vaccine rollout sets stage for civil
unrest
Even as vaccine campaigns get underway, government containment
efforts such as local and national lockdowns are likely to persist
in the coming months. These restrictions impact government's
revenue levels as economic activity remains below pre-COVID-19
levels.
With public debt at historic levels for a number of countries
entering 2021, fiscal stimulus packages and support benefits
cannot persist indefinitely. As such packages phase out, especially
where vaccination campaigns are slow to get off the ground, so
grows the threat of protest activity. Already in January and
February,
anti-lockdown demonstrations took place across parts of Europe.
In rare instances, dissatisfaction with government COVID-19
management will present existential obstacles to current
leadership.
Undoubtedly, countries face unique logistical constraints in
administering a once-in-a-lifetime COVID-19 vaccination campaign.
But several months into these campaigns, the experience suggests
there are as many commonalities as divergences. For now, most
countries remain vaccine importers with vaccine exporters
leveraging the benefit accrued to them by current vaccine scarcity
to extend influence and soft power, but vaccine procurement alone
is not enough to guarantee smooth vaccine administration. With high
aspirations for health and economic recoveries in 2021, vaccine
delivery will be a pressing pain point for leadership globally.
This article is the first in a series where we look at the
Covid-19 vaccine rollout across the globe.
Posted 09 March 2021 by Lindsay Newman, Director, Economics & Country Risk, S&P Global Market Intelligence