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The World Health Organization (WHO), in its weekly
epidemiological update on 30 June, said that so far the Delta
variant of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) virus has been
detected in 96 countries, including 11 new locations in one week
alone. Although reports vary about the transmissibility of the
Delta variant, it very likely behaves in a similar way to other
variants such as the Alpha, in terms of transmissibility and
incubation period.
Despite the greater relative accessibility of COVID-19
vaccines, the spread of the Delta variant in Europe is likely to
delay the easing of certain emergency measures, undermining the
EU-wide vaccine passport.
The number of people infected with the Delta variant has
increased in several European countries in recent weeks. Despite a
very high inoculation rate - just under half of the population were
fully vaccinated by the end of June - infection rates in the United
Kingdom have grown. In Portugal, there has also been a drastic
increase in the incidence rate of the Delta variant, which accounts
for every second new infection in the country, and 70% in the
greater Lisbon area. Meanwhile in Germany, the Delta variant was
responsible for 15% of all new infections. According to the
European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), the
Delta variant is likely to account for 90% of new COVID-19 cases in
Europe by late August. These developments are prompting governments
to reverse or delay plans to relax restrictions. The spread of the
Delta variant also risks undermining the
EU Digital COVID certificate (EUDCC), which took effect on 1
July and aims to facilitate travel within the European Union.
The Delta variant very likely exacerbated the COVID-19
situation in India during the second wave in April-June 2021, with
sub-variants and easing of lockdowns sustaining a risk of an
increase in infections again after July.
The Delta variant accounted for the highest number of COVID-19
cases during India's second wave, which lasted from mid-April to
mid-June. At its peak on 6 May, India recorded over 414,000
COVID-19 cases, the highest single-day tally globally. The impact
of the second wave was compounded by India's fragile healthcare
system, with widespread shortages of oxygen support, hospital beds,
medical supplies, and testing capacity, as reported in the national
media. This portends similar risks in other countries with weak
healthcare systems, as now seen in sub-Saharan Africa. Despite the
humanitarian toll, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government
will very likely remain stable, without requiring cabinet or
administrative-level resignations. His foreign policy agenda,
however, particularly as it relates to vaccine diplomacy
(officially called Vaccine Maitri), has been halted since April
given the need to prioritize domestic inoculation. A ban on vaccine
exports by the Serum Institute of India - likely until the end of
2021 - has destabilized the COVID-19 Vaccines Global Access (COVAX)
initiative, directed by the Gavi vaccine alliance, delaying
domestic inoculation plans in African, Latin American, Middle
Eastern, and Southeast Asian countries.
The Delta variant is likely to exacerbate growing
numbers of COVID-19 infections across sub-Saharan
Africa.
In 22 African countries, cases rose by over 20% in the week
ending 13 June. During the same week, reported deaths rose by
nearly
15% in 36 countries. Export disruption from India, and a lack
of domestic supply, have seen many countries in the region exhaust
their vaccine stocks, delaying the already slow rollout of COVID-19
vaccines. As a result, governments will rely on localized lockdown
regulations to contain COVID-19 infections over the next six months
at least. During such lockdowns, governments will be eager to allow
business travel and cargo movement and limit the economic
disruption caused by lockdown measures. However, in southern
Africa, authorities will probably close land borders or introduce
restrictions, leading to delays of between two and five days to
cargo deliveries across the region.
The growing incidence rate of the Delta variant across
the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is likely to slow
the easing of restrictions on movement and the tourism sectors of
those states that have developed the most advanced vaccine rollout
programs.
Israel has double-vaccinated approximately 80% of its over-16
population. The Israeli government is likely to limit foreign
tourism to travelers with proof of double vaccination and to
continue to enforce mask-wearing in public. Overall tourism travel
across the MENA region is unlikely to recover in 2021, particularly
in Gulf countries. Although most Gulf states have relatively high
rates of vaccination, their reliance on migrant labor and the
international travel hubs in Dubai and Doha have made them more
vulnerable to influxes of new virus variants. Additionally, the
United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain prioritized early access to
Chinese vaccines for their universal rollout programs, but these
vaccines have proved significantly less efficacious against the
Delta variant.
The spread of the COVID-19 virus is likely to accelerate
across Latin America in the coming weeks given the low vaccination
rates in the region, raising calls for governments to expedite
vaccine procurement and rollout efforts.
Latin American countries began reporting their first Delta
variant cases in recent days, although given overall low testing
levels, it is highly likely the variant is already more widespread
than acknowledged. At the time of writing, the sole country to have
taken explicit action to stop the spread of the Delta variant is
Argentina, which on 28 June announced further restrictions for
incoming air travelers. Region-wide, vaccine rollouts have been
sluggish on average, with only Chile and Uruguay having vaccinated
more than 60% of their populations with at least one dose. During
the first quarter, Russia and China signed purchase agreements for
their vaccines with multiple countries in the region, although
deliveries have fallen behind initial expectations. More recently,
the United States announced a 14-million-dose donation of Moderna,
Pfizer, and Johnson & Johnson vaccines to several Latin
American countries, including Argentina, Colombia, and Panama.
Posted 13 July 2021 by Deepa Kumar, Deputy Head, Asia-Pacific Country Risk Team, S&P Global Market Intelligence and
Dijedon Imeri, Senior Analyst, Country Risk, S&P Global Market Intelligence and
Jack A. Kennedy, Associate Director and Head of Desk, Country Risk – Middle East and North Africa, S&P Global Market Intelligence and
Lindsay Newman, Director, Economics & Country Risk, S&P Global Market Intelligence and
William Farmer, Analyst, Sub-Saharan Africa, Country Risk, IHS Markit