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The European automotive industry has gathered for the 68th
Frankfurt Motor Show to show a number of key electric vehicle (EV)
launches. Although the VW ID.3 and Porsche Taycan were revealed
ahead of the show, their unveiling in their homeland had a special
resonance for two cars that are hugely important for their
respective manufacturers. Other important EVs such as the new Opel
Corsa e and the Honda e also made their debuts as production models
and will further test the realworld viability and customer appetite
for EVs.
Outlook and Implication: Although the Frankfurt
show launches appear to indicate that the European industry is
finally gearing up for electrification and taking EVs seriously,
there are still major question marks over the sales development of
such vehicles. There is no doubt that in general terms IHS Markit
is among the more bearish forecasters when it comes to the sales
development with battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and we believe
for good reason.The cost of the battery in a BEV is currently a
substantial proportion of the overall vehicle cost. If we select
the Nissan Leaf in the UK as an example, the base trim 40kWh 2019
model has a manufacturer suggested retail price (MSRP) of USD31,500
(USD40,000) before subsidies. According to IHS Markit's powertrain
experts and their calculations, if the entire cost of the
powertrain is factored in, including motors, power electronics and
software, then around 35% of the total MSRP of the UK-specification
Leaf is attributable to the powertrain. This is why VW, Honda and
Opel have all tried hard to target the magic EUR30,000 price point
for their new 'affordable' EVs, and this is generally seen as a
realistic level of affordability for a vehicle to be economically
viable to a wide range of customers.
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