Frankfurt Motor Show 2019: Important production EVs, premium concepts and city cars dominate launches

11 September 2019 Tim Urquhart, B.A.

The European automotive industry has gathered for the 68th Frankfurt Motor Show to show a number of key electric vehicle (EV) launches. Although the VW ID.3 and Porsche Taycan were revealed ahead of the show, their unveiling in their homeland had a special resonance for two cars that are hugely important for their respective manufacturers. Other important EVs such as the new Opel Corsa e and the Honda e also made their debuts as production models and will further test the realworld viability and customer appetite for EVs.

Outlook and Implication: Although the Frankfurt show launches appear to indicate that the European industry is finally gearing up for electrification and taking EVs seriously, there are still major question marks over the sales development of such vehicles. There is no doubt that in general terms IHS Markit is among the more bearish forecasters when it comes to the sales development with battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and we believe for good reason.The cost of the battery in a BEV is currently a substantial proportion of the overall vehicle cost. If we select the Nissan Leaf in the UK as an example, the base trim 40kWh 2019 model has a manufacturer suggested retail price (MSRP) of USD31,500 (USD40,000) before subsidies. According to IHS Markit's powertrain experts and their calculations, if the entire cost of the powertrain is factored in, including motors, power electronics and software, then around 35% of the total MSRP of the UK-specification Leaf is attributable to the powertrain. This is why VW, Honda and Opel have all tried hard to target the magic EUR30,000 price point for their new 'affordable' EVs, and this is generally seen as a realistic level of affordability for a vehicle to be economically viable to a wide range of customers.