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Forecast review: Ethiopia

14 September 2018 Lindsay Newman

Forecast review

As part of our forecasting process we regularly review our analysis to identify forecasts that leverage cross-IHS Markit resources and best exemplify our indicator-led approach and the capabilities we have developed including: local source network, influence mapping, SOCMINT, control mapping, and risk numeration. The forecasts identified through this process are used internally to allow us to consistently monitor and enhance best practice across our regional teams. Doing so ensures the transparency of our methodology and robustness of our analysis.

For our clients, these ahead of the curve, compelling forecasts provide advanced warning of impending changes to the risk environment, allowing them to adjust their strategy or take decisions to mitigate against the identified risks.

Below is a recent example of a forecast captured through this process.

Ethiopia

Correct forecast (December 2017) of the weakening authority of Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn and, following his resignation in February 2018, correct identification that same month of Abiy Ahmed as his likely replacement. Ahmed was appointed to the role in March 2018.

The forecasts reflected our transparent and rigorous methodology:

  • Several scenarios were drawn up and evaluated from most to least likely, based on the assumption that the dominant coalition member was engaged in a pre-emptive strategy to retain its influence.
  • The profiles of each prospective candidates were also researched in-depth, drawing out commonalities between senior ruling party members.
  • Local source inputs including local journalists were utilised to evaluate the plausibility of each scenario.
  • Amharic language skills of contributors were also used to pick through speculative social media sources and rate their reliability/bias.

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