Obtain the data you need to make the most informed decisions by accessing our extensive portfolio of information, analytics, and expertise. Sign in to the product or service center of your choice.
How will the EU market and key car manufacturers comply
under the 2030 target?
Under the IHS Markit baseline sales forecast (S0), the EU market
will be composed of 31% BEVs, 10% PHEVs, 12% HEVs, and 43% MHEVs in
2030. The market will be significantly under compliant under either
the current legislation or proposed further CO2 target
reduction in 2030. Significant powertrain changes are needed to
move towards 2030 compliance.
Two pathways are evaluated for the EU market to meet 2030
CO2 emission target:
1. Overall powertrain mix upgrade, and
2. Dedicated BEV boost
What-if analysis shows that a nearly 40% BEV share is needed for
the market to achieve the current 2030 target under 37.5% reduction
requirement, and 51-56% BEVs are expected to meet 50-55% target
reduction if the market relies heavily or solely on BEVs for
compliance. Or if within the allowance of updated legislation, that
is, assuming no ZLEV mandate, a significant bump of HEVs from
MHEVs, along with a milder increase of BEVs and PHEVs, will lead
the market towards compliance. Under the powertrain mix upgrade
pathway, nearly 35%, 46%, and 50% BEVs are needed to comply under
the three target scenarios respectively, i.e. 37.5%, 50%, and 55%
target reduction in 2030 from the 2021 level.
Download the latest whitepaper for the assessment of powertrain
mix and BEV boost pathways, and discover our projected 2030
passenger car CO2 emission target and how to achieve it
under each target scenario.
