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EU Passenger Car CO₂ Emission Target and Impacts Under the Green Deal

14 December 2020 Vijay Subramanian

How will the EU market and key car manufacturers comply under the 2030 target?

Under the IHS Markit baseline sales forecast (S0), the EU market will be composed of 31% BEVs, 10% PHEVs, 12% HEVs, and 43% MHEVs in 2030. The market will be significantly under compliant under either the current legislation or proposed further CO2 target reduction in 2030. Significant powertrain changes are needed to move towards 2030 compliance.

Two pathways are evaluated for the EU market to meet 2030 CO2 emission target:

1. Overall powertrain mix upgrade, and

2. Dedicated BEV boost

What-if analysis shows that a nearly 40% BEV share is needed for the market to achieve the current 2030 target under 37.5% reduction requirement, and 51-56% BEVs are expected to meet 50-55% target reduction if the market relies heavily or solely on BEVs for compliance. Or if within the allowance of updated legislation, that is, assuming no ZLEV mandate, a significant bump of HEVs from MHEVs, along with a milder increase of BEVs and PHEVs, will lead the market towards compliance. Under the powertrain mix upgrade pathway, nearly 35%, 46%, and 50% BEVs are needed to comply under the three target scenarios respectively, i.e. 37.5%, 50%, and 55% target reduction in 2030 from the 2021 level.

Download the latest whitepaper for the assessment of powertrain mix and BEV boost pathways, and discover our projected 2030 passenger car CO2 emission target and how to achieve it under each target scenario.



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